CLE
NO
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
DET
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
KC
LAC
LV
SF
ARI
SEA
GB
NE
CHI
BUF
MIN
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CIN.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ATL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Atlanta rank 26th against intermediate throws, which make up 28% of Chase's targets.
- Work the middle: 23% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 22nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 30th against short throws and 32nd for yards after the catch allowed. London takes 51% of his targets short and is 82nd percentile after the catch.
- Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offenceATL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Bengals offence has a 19-place edge.
When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ATL offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Bengals defence has a 16-place edge.
Form and history
Bengals this season
33-27wk 1 vs TBW
20-6wk 2 at HOUL
27-30wk 3 at PITL
17-22wk 4 vs JAXW
31-24wk 5 at MIAW
35-13wk 7 at BALW
43-36wk 8 vs TENFalcons this season17-35ATL at CIN2022-10
Injury report
Bengalsmodel impact -0.5| Josh KattusTE | Out |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb | IR |
| Erick All Jr.TE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Swayze BozemanLB · Arm | IR |
| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
| Cashius HowellDL · Wrist | IR |
| Cedric JohnsonDE · Ankle | Questionable |
| DJ Turner IIDB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Kyle DuggerDB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Falconsmodel impact 0.0| Zachariah BranchWR · Hamstring | Out |
| Beaux CollinsWR | IR |
| Trey SermonRB | IR |
| Samson EbukamDE · Hamstring | IR |
| JD BertrandLB | IR |
| Yasir AbdullahLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Anterio ThompsonDT | PUP |
| Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps | IR |
| Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| DeAngelo MaloneDL | PUP |
| Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Michael JerrellOT · Biceps | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing yards | 270.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing yards | 221.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing TDs | 2.5 | 2.45 | 39% | 80% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 10% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Rushing yards | 92.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Rushing yards | 51.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Rushing yards | 17.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 24.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receiving yards | 19.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | Receiving yards | 16.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 100% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 79.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 40% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Receiving yards | 75.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 26.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kyle PittsATLrole up | Receiving yards | 41.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Mike GesickiCINrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 70% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Receiving yards | 5.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 80% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receiving yards | 77.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.24 | 42% | 40% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 100% | |
| Drake LondonATL | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.72 | 55% | 40% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCINrole up | Receptions | 6.5 | 1.80 | 52% | 80% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.57 | 60% | 20% | |
| Kyle PittsATLrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 40% | |
| Mike GesickiCINrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.76 | 54% | 80% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.63 | 36% | 30% | |
| Tee HigginsCINrole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CIN (70%) by 6.6 points.