NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to BAL.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Baltimore rank 20th against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Chase's targets.
- Work the right side: 36% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 22nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 30th against short throws and 32nd for yards after the catch allowed. Flowers takes 60% of his targets short and is 81st percentile after the catch.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 84th percentile for separation and 15th for hands, and Daxton Hill, DJ Turner and DJ Ivey all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 26th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against short throws.
- Pressure: Cincinnati are 10th at getting sacks, and Baltimore are 25th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offenceBAL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Bengals offence has a 13-place edge.
When the Ravens have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BAL offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Bengals defence has a 19-place edge.
Form and history
Bengals this season
Ravens this season24-0BAL at CIN2025-12
32-14CIN at BAL2025-11
34-35CIN at BAL2024-11
41-38BAL at CIN2024-10
20-34CIN at BAL2023-11
Injury report
Bengalsmodel impact 0.0| Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb | IR |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Swayze BozemanLB · Arm | IR |
| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
| Kyle DuggerDB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Ravensmodel impact -1.2| Skylar ThompsonQB | IR |
| Adam RandallRB | IR |
| Durham SmytheTE · Achilles | IR |
| Bilhal KoneCB · Lower Body | IR |
| Jovaughn GwynOL · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ethan PocicOL · Knee | IR |
| Danny PinterG · Knee | IR |
| T.J. Tampa Jr.DB · Knee | IR |
| Jahquez RobinsonDB | IR |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Shoulder | Questionable |
| Matt HibnerTE · Hand | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing yards | 262.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.53 | 62% | 80% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Rushing yards | 48.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Derrick HenryBAL | Rushing yards | 85.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Joe BurrowCIN | Rushing yards | 6.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Rushing yards | 21.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 60% | |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 100% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Receiving yards | 80.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| Mike GesickiCINrole up | Receiving yards | 22.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 80% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Receiving yards | 8.5 | 1.96 | 48% | 80% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receiving yards | 63.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.20 | 43% | 90% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCINrole up | Receptions | 7.5 | 2.07 | 46% | 60% | |
| Mike GesickiCINrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 80% | |
| Samaje PerineCINrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.67 | 57% | 30% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.67 | 57% | 70% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Split signal: win probability leans CIN (51%) while the points model has BAL by 0.0 — low agreement, treat as a coin flip.