JAX
CIN
ATL
CLE
NO
DEN
CAR
DET
MIA
LA
NYJ
KC
LAC
LV
SF
SEA
NE
CHI
BUF
MIN
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DAL. IND have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How IND defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Indianapolis rank 24th against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Lamb's targets.
- Work the right side: 44% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 21st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 23% of Warren's targets.
- Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 29th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Dallas are 23rd at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 20th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DAL offenceIND defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Cowboys offence has a 21-place edge.
When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)IND offenceDAL defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Colts offence has a 24-place edge.
Form and history
Cowboys this season
20-28wk 1 at NYGW
37-20wk 2 vs WASL
31-34wk 3 vs BALW
34-30wk 4 at HOUL
16-24wk 5 vs TBL
13-23wk 6 at GBW
38-21wk 7 at PHIL
30-33wk 8 vs ARIColts this season
19-54IND at DAL2022-12
Injury report
Cowboysmodel impact 0.0| Malik DavisRB · Hip | IR |
| Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Devin MooreCB | IR |
| Jonathan BullardDE · Calf | IR |
| Marist LiufauLB · Forearm | IR |
| Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps | IR |
| Matt HennessyOL · Neck | IR |
| Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring | IR |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Ribs | Questionable |
| Jake FergusonTE · Ankle | Questionable |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Groin | Questionable |
| Dee WintersLB · Calf | Questionable |
Coltsmodel impact 0.0| Alec PierceWR · Heel | IR |
| D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen | IR |
| Carson TowtTE | IR |
| Arden KeyDE · Hamstring | IR |
| Cam Taylor-BrittDB · Groin | IR |
| Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe | IR |
| Cameron MitchellDB | IR |
| Anthony GouldWR · Concussion | Questionable |
| Justin WalleyCB · Knee | Questionable |
| Bryce BoettcherLB · Groin | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DAL (65%) by 3.5 points.