JAX
BAL
CIN
ATL
NO
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
HOU
LAC
SF
ARI
SEA
TB
BUF
MIN
KC look like the play here. NYJ have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How KC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Kansas City rank 18th against intermediate throws, which make up 27% of Wilson's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 32nd against short throws and 22nd for yards after the catch allowed. Rice takes 76% of his targets short and is 83rd percentile after the catch.
- Work the right side: 42% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws.
- Pressure: the Jets are 17th at getting sacks, and Kansas City are 21st at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYJ offenceKC defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Chiefs defence has a 11-place edge.
When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)KC offenceNYJ defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Chiefs offence has a 18-place edge.
Form and history
Jets this season
23-10wk 1 at TENL
17-20wk 2 vs GBL
24-31wk 3 at DETL
12-23wk 4 at CHIW
17-12wk 5 vs CLEL
19-26wk 6 at NEL
25-28wk 7 vs MIAL
33-38wk 8 vs LVChiefs this season23-20KC at NYJ2023-10
Injury report
Jetsmodel impact 0.0| Arian SmithWR · Knee | IR |
| Tyler BaronDE · Knee | PUP |
| Braiden McGregorDE · Pectoral | IR |
| Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kiko MauigoaLB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh | IR |
| David OnyemataDT · Groin | IR |
| VJ PayneDB | IR |
| Max MitchellT · Concussion | IR |
| T'Vondre SweatDL · Knee | IR |
| Anez CooperG · Shoulder | IR |
| Breece HallRB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Chiefsmodel impact 0.0| Jimmy HolidayWR | IR |
| Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee | IR |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Brashard SmithRB · Hamstring | IR |
| John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee | IR |
| L'Jarius SneedCB · Knee | IR |
| Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Josh SimmonsOL · Back | IR |
| Mansoor DelaneDB · Shoulder | Questionable |
| Peter WoodsDL · Neck | Questionable |
| Joe ForsonWR | NA |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors KC (64%) by 3.9 points.