ARI
DAL
BUF
CLE
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
SEA
We lean toward TB in this one.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tampa Bay rank 25th against intermediate throws, which make up 36% of London's targets.
- Work the left side: 42% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 20th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ATL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Atlanta rank 18th against short throws, which make up 78% of Godwin's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ATL offenceTB defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Buccaneers defence has a 23-place edge.
When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TB offenceATL defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Falcons defence has a 18-place edge.
Form and history
Falcons this season
13-20wk 1 at PITL
3-34wk 2 vs CARW
35-14wk 3 at GBW
45-24wk 4 at NOL
23-30wk 5 vs BALL
23-31wk 6 vs CHIW
29-20wk 7 vs SFBuccaneers this season29-28ATL at TB2025-12
23-20TB at ATL2025-09
31-26ATL at TB2024-10
30-36TB at ATL2024-10
29-25TB at ATL2023-12
Injury report
Falconsmodel impact 0.0| Beaux CollinsWR | IR |
| Trey SermonRB | IR |
| JD BertrandLB | IR |
| Yasir AbdullahLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Anterio ThompsonDT | PUP |
| Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps | IR |
| Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| DeAngelo MaloneDL | PUP |
| Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Michael JerrellOT · Biceps | IR |
| Storm NortonT · Foot | PUP |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Shoulder | Questionable |
Buccaneersmodel impact 0.0| Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| Josh HayesCB · Knee | IR |
| Christian RozeboomLB · Finger | IR |
| Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee | IR |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Concussion | Questionable |
| Luke GoedekeOL · Calf | Questionable |
| Antoine Winfield Jr.DB · Ribs | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldTB | Passing yards | 216.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing yards | 223.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 10% | |
| Baker MayfieldTB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.16 | 44% | 70% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.24 | 42% | 10% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Rushing yards | 70.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 60% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 77.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 23.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kenny GainwellTB | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Kyle PittsTBrole up | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 30% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.71 | 55% | 40% | |
| Bucky IrvingTBrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.24 | 42% | 60% | |
| Drake LondonATL | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.64 | 58% | 40% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.56 | 60% | 20% | |
| Kyle PittsTBrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 40% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors TB (56%) by 3.0 points.