JAX
BAL
CIN
CLE
NO
IND
DEN
MIA
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
KC
HOU
LAC
LV
SF
ARI
SEA
BUF
NE look like the play here. GB have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. NE have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 30% of Watson's targets.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Watson's worst return (-0.01 EPA a target), and New England are 14th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 6th percentile for separation and 66th for hands, and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How GB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Green Bay rank 22nd against short throws, which make up 68% of Henry's targets.
- Work the left side: 29% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 21st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)GB offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Patriots defence has a 18-place edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceGB defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Packers defence has a 12-place edge.
Form and history
Packers this season
22-39wk 1 at MINW
20-17wk 2 at NYJL
14-35wk 3 vs ATLW
17-14wk 4 at TBW
31-7wk 5 vs CHIW
23-13wk 6 vs DALL
17-20wk 7 at DETW
27-19wk 8 vs CARPatriots this season
24-27NE at GB2022-10
Injury report
Packersmodel impact 0.0| Jayden ReedWR · Neck | IR |
| Skyy MooreWR · Ankle | IR |
| Chris BrooksRB · Ankle | IR |
| Thomas YassminTE | IR |
| Luke MusgraveTE | PUP |
| Collin OliverDE | IR |
| Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles | IR |
| Javon HargraveDT · Achilles | IR |
| Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee | IR |
| Jacob MonkOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Jonathan FordDL · Calf | IR |
Patriotsmodel impact 0.0| Mack HollinsWR · Calf | IR |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Shoulder | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Reggie GilliamRB · Ankle | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
| Harold Landry IIILB | PUP |
| Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle | IR |
| Alijah Vera-TuckerOL · Hamstring | IR |
| Greg Van RotenOG · Thigh | IR |
| Dell PettusDB · Ankle | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NE (66%) by 5.1 points.