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Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Steelers · deep dive · week 5

Pittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled

Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

100%red-zone td rate
47-32model, 2026
49-30market, 2026
Read the breakdown
Beat the Model · week 6

14 games. Call them before you see the machine's picks.

No account needed. The model's pick for each game stays hidden until you lock yours.

Play week 6
The board · week 6

Where the model and market split

All 14 games
UKGameModel and marketF&Dvs mktProj. scoreTotal
21:054:05 PM ETARI at LA
Model
LA 69%
Market
LA 86%
-16.921 - 2949.7
18:001:00 PM ETNO at NYG
Model
NYG 60%
Market
NO 51%
+10.620 - 2545.1
14:309:30 AM ETHOU at JAX
Model
JAX 64%
Market
JAX 56%
+7.521 - 2546.4
18:001:00 PM ETNYJ at NE
Model
NE 82%
Market
NE 74%
+7.417 - 2945.5
01:158:15 PM ETWAS at SF
Model
SF 85%
Market
SF 78%
+7.418 - 3249.9
Breakdowns

Latest

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Rewind · week 5

Washington 27, the Giants 27: the backup who won it

We had the Giants at 63%. The market had Washington by 3.5. It finished level, 27-27. Washington started Jayden Daniels rather than Marcus Mariota (Marcus Mariota was ruled Out).

3 min
Featured game · week 6

Seattle at Denver: what decides it

SEA at DEN, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model SEA 53%, market SEA 56%.

4 min
The ledger · week 5

Week 5 graded: 11‑4, market 9‑6

We beat the market this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.

3 min
2026 so far · graded in public

The market is ahead of us this season. We publish that too.

The full record
Model47-3259.5%
Market49-3062.0%
Published late0of 79 picks after kickoff