ATL
GB
CAR
CLE
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CIN. CIN have been the more consistent team recently, while PIT have struggled to find their form.
Key matchups
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offencePIT defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Steelers defence has a 23-place edge.
When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PIT offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Bengals defence has a 29-place edge.
Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Bengals this seasonSteelers this season12-34CIN at PIT2025-11
31-33PIT at CIN2025-10
19-17CIN at PIT2025-01
44-38PIT at CIN2024-12
11-34CIN at PIT2023-12
Injury report
Bengalsmodel impact 0.0| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
| B.J. HillDT · Achilles | Questionable |
Steelersmodel impact 0.0| Max HurlemanCB | Out |
| Donte KentCB | PUP |
| Logan LeeDL | IR |
| DeShon ElliottDB | IR |
| Jack DriscollT | IR |
| Michael PittmanWR · Foot | Questionable |
| Rico DowdleRB · Toe | Questionable |
| Joey PorterDB · Back | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing yards | 219.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Joe BurrowCINrole up | Passing yards | 249.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 90% | |
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.94 | 32% | 60% | |
| Joe BurrowCINrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 80% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Rushing yards | 63.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receiving yards | 22.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 60% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 60% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCINrole up | Receiving yards | 77.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receiving yards | 34.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receiving yards | 53.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 80% | |
| Chase BrownCINrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.08 | 45% | 50% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 10% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCINrole up | Receptions | 6.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 80% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 40% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CIN (55%) by 1.3 points.