WAS
NYG
NE
DET
BUF
NYJ
CAR
NO
HOU
CLE
JAX
TEN
KC
ATL
MIA
IND
MIN
GB
LA
ARI
SEA
LV
SF
DAL
LAC
BAL
How the game swung
The Steelers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q4 0:53 - Cincinnati turnover by J.Burrow (-42% WPA) sealed it.
(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at PIT 21 for 21 yards (22-A.Samuel).
(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.
(:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase ran ob at PIT 38 for 13 yards (23-D.Everette).
(:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
Who won the matchups
Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.
Cincinnati won it: Metcalf held to 31 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 54.
Every drive
Bengals drive left to right, Steelers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
TD · 4 pl · 73 ydsTD · 11 pl · 78 ydsTD · 11 pl · 86 ydsFG · 8 pl · 37 ydsFG · 5 pl · 55 ydsPunt · 5 pl · 18 ydsTurnover · 7 pl · 32 ydsTD · 5 pl · 53 ydsHalf · 2 pl · 12 ydsFG · 11 pl · 75 ydsTD · 11 pl · 59 ydsTD · 8 pl · 64 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 11 ydsFG · 3 pl · -4 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 8 ydsFG · 7 pl · 89 ydsTurnover · 5 pl · 19 ydsHalf · 0 pl · 0 ydsSide by side
Bengals leadersSteelers leadersScoring
| Q1 13:17 | | (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 14-R.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 0-6 |
| Q1 13:10 | | 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 0-7 |
| Q1 05:54 | | 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 6-7 |
| Q1 05:50 | | 2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. | 7-7 |
| Q1 00:57 | | (:57) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 15-B.Skowronek for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 7-13 |
| Q1 00:52 | | 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 7-14 |
| Q2 10:20 | | 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. | 10-14 |
| Q2 07:10 | | 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 10-17 |
| Q2 00:39 | | (:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. | 16-17 |
| Q2 00:34 | | 2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. | 17-17 |
| Q3 08:26 | | 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. | 20-17 |
| Q3 02:48 | | 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 20-23 |
| Q3 02:43 | | 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 20-24 |
| Q4 13:33 | | (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 26-24 |
| Q4 13:29 | | 2-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. | 27-24 |
| Q4 08:48 | | 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 27-27 |
| Q4 02:18 | | 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. | 27-30 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had CIN 52%, the market CIN 62%. It finished CIN 27, PIT 30.
Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.
Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.