JAX
BAL
NO
IND
DEN
DET
MIA
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
KC
HOU
LAC
LV
SF
ARI
SEA
NE
BUF
CHI look like a strong play here. CHI have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Chicago are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Godwin's likeliest route is short throws (77% of his targets), where they rank 12th.
- Work the middle: 16% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 25th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tampa Bay are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Loveland's likeliest route is intermediate throws (27% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Work the left side: 21% of his targets go that way and Tampa Bay rank 24th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 33rd percentile for separation and 42nd for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TB offenceCHI defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Bears defence has a 26-place edge.
When the Bears have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CHI offenceTB defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Buccaneers defence has a 8-place edge.
Form and history
Buccaneers this season
27-33wk 1 at CINL
19-23wk 2 vs CLEL
16-23wk 3 vs MINL
14-17wk 4 vs GBW
24-16wk 5 at DALL
19-26wk 6 vs PITW
43-13wk 7 at CARW
16-0wk 8 vs ATLBears this season17-27CHI at TB2023-09
3-38CHI at TB2021-10
Injury report
Buccaneersmodel impact 0.0| Yaya DiabyDL · Knee - MCL | Out |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| Josh HayesCB · Knee | IR |
| Christian RozeboomLB · Finger | IR |
| Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee | IR |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Foot | Questionable |
Bearsmodel impact 0.0| Brittain BrownRB | IR |
| Nikola KalinicTE · Knee | IR |
| Cole KmetTE · Knee | IR |
| Hayden LargeTE | IR |
| Dayo OdeyingboDE · Quadriceps | IR |
| Tony Fields IILB | IR |
| Nephi SewellLB · Concussion | IR |
| Braxton JonesOL · Knee | IR |
| Coby BryantDB · Knee | IR |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Toe | Questionable |
| Malik Muhammad IICB · Toe | Questionable |
| Grady JarrettDT · Groin | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CHI (71%) by 7.8 points.