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Playoff Predictions

Monte Carlo bracket simulation • 10,000 simulations

Week:22
Updated:Feb 8, 1:58 PM

First-Round Bye Advantage

67% of teams with a bye win their divisional game. Rest & home field are critical.
DEN0.0% SB
SEA50.7% SB

Championship Probabilities

Wild Card
2
NENE100%
7
LACLAC0%
3
JAXJAX0%
6
BUFBUF100%
4
PITPIT0%
5
HOUHOU100%
Divisional
1
DENDEN100%
6
BUFBUF0%
2
NENE100%
5
HOUHOU0%
AFC Championship
1
DENDEN0%
2
NENE100%
Super Bowl
NE logoNE
50.2%
vs
SEA logoSEA
49.8%
Wild Card
2
CHICHI100%
7
GBGB0%
3
PHIPHI0%
6
SFSF100%
4
CARCAR0%
5
LARLAR100%
Divisional
1
SEASEA100%
6
SFSF0%
2
CHICHI0%
5
LARLAR100%
NFC Championship
1
SEASEA100%
5
LARLAR0%

Projected Champions

AFC Champion
NE
NE100.0%
Super Bowl Winner
NE
NE50.2%
NFC Champion
SEA
SEA100.0%

Super Bowl Odds

AFC
2NE logoNE
49.3%
1DEN logoDEN
0.0%
3JAX logoJAX
0.0%
4PIT logoPIT
0.0%
5HOU logoHOU
0.0%
6BUF logoBUF
0.0%
7LAC logoLAC
0.0%
NFC
1SEA logoSEA
50.7%
2CHI logoCHI
0.0%
3PHI logoPHI
0.0%
4CAR logoCAR
0.0%
5LAR logoLAR
0.0%
6SF logoSF
0.0%
7GB logoGB
0.0%
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Fourth and Data provides sports analytics and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not accept bets, wagers, or conduct any gambling activities. All predictions are probabilistic estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Users are solely responsible for their own betting decisions and compliance with local gambling laws. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

© 2026 Fourth and Data·For entertainment purposes only
Model: ~72% ATS · Brier: 0.20 · MAE: 10pts