This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DET. DET have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. MIA have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Amon-Ra St. Brown · against MIA

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

64%

Intermediate

30%

Deep (20+)

6%

Left side

33%

Middle

34%

Right side

34%

How MIA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

24th

Intermediate

32nd

Deep (20+)

15th

Left side

14th

Middle

30th

Right side

29th

Yards after catch allowed

18th

Sack rate forced

20th

The read

1. Miami rank 32nd against intermediate throws, which make up 30% of Brown's targets.
2. Work the middle: 34% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 30th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Malik Washington · against DET

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

69%

Intermediate

12%

Deep (20+)

19%

Left side

45%

Middle

16%

Right side

39%

How DET defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

20th

Intermediate

15th

Deep (20+)

32nd

Left side

11th

Middle

31st

Right side

28th

Yards after catch allowed

1st

Sack rate forced

10th

The read

1. Detroit rank 32nd against deep balls, and 19% of Washington's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the right side: 39% of his targets go that way and Detroit rank 28th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Jared Goff · against MIA

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How MIA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

24th

Intermediate

32nd

Deep (20+)

15th

Left side

14th

Middle

30th

Right side

29th

Yards after catch allowed

18th

Sack rate forced

20th

The read

1. Miami rank 28th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against intermediate throws.
2. Pressure: Miami are 20th at getting sacks, and Detroit are 16th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Lions have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

DET offence

MIA defence

OverallEPA per play

6th

32nd

PassingEPA per dropback

4th

32nd

RushingEPA per carry

15th

18th

Third downconversion rate

15th

32nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

17th

27th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Lions offence has a 28-place edge.

When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIA offence

DET defence

OverallEPA per play

23rd

30th

PassingEPA per dropback

21st

29th

RushingEPA per carry

21st

13th

Third downconversion rate

10th

27th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

31st

7th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Lions defence has a 24-place edge.

Form and history

Lions this season

W31-30wk 1 vs NOL31-41wk 2 at BUFW31-24wk 3 vs NYJL26-32wk 4 at CARW45-21wk 5 at ARIW20-17wk 7 vs GBW19-15wk 8 vs MIN

Dolphins this season

L13-27wk 1 at LVL13-35wk 2 at SFL10-24wk 3 vs KCL10-15wk 4 at MINL24-31wk 5 vs CINW28-25wk 7 at NYJL19-24wk 8 vs NE

Last 1 meetingsDET 0 · MIA 1

31-27MIA at DET
2022-10

Injury report

Lionsmodel impact -0.5

Tom KennedyWR · Knee - MCL	IR
Kendrick LawWR · Knee - ACL	IR
Isiah PachecoRB · Back	IR
Avonte MaddoxCB · Foot	IR
Payton TurnerDE · Back	IR
Devin WhiteLB · Forearm	IR
Damone ClarkLB	IR
Jimmy RolderLB · Hamstring	IR
Ben BartchOL · Foot	IR
Giovanni ManuOL · Knee	PUP
Kerby JosephDB · Knee	PUP
Thomas HarperDB · Ankle	IR

Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0

De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL	IR
Cole TurnerTE	IR
Darrell Baker Jr.CB	PUP
Trey MooreLB · Ankle	IR
Rene KongaDL	IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.DB · Hamstring	IR
Malik HerringDE	Questionable
Kadyn ProctorOT · Concussion	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.