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Cardinals
3-5 · 21.9 pts/g
Preview · week 9
20–27
projected score · Sun 8 Nov 21:25 UK · 4:25 PM ET
Seahawks
4-4 · 23.1 pts/g
Model
SEA 69%
Market
SEA 84%
Model pickSEA 69%Medium confidence
F&D score83out of 100
MarketSEA 84%draftkings, margin removed
vs market-15.1points, model minus market
Total46.8SEA by 7.2

SEA look like the play here.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Trey McBride · against SEA

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)
74%
Intermediate
21%
Deep (20+)
4%
Left side
31%
Middle
21%
Right side
48%

How SEA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)
11th
Intermediate
2nd
Deep (20+)
1st
Left side
3rd
Middle
4th
Right side
2nd
Yards after catch allowed
12th
Sack rate forced
15th
The read
  1. Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. McBride's likeliest route is short throws (74% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
  2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 12th percentile for separation and 81st for hands, and Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
  3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · against ARI

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)
53%
Intermediate
34%
Deep (20+)
13%
Left side
42%
Middle
22%
Right side
36%

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)
31st
Intermediate
28th
Deep (20+)
29th
Left side
27th
Middle
28th
Right side
31st
Yards after catch allowed
31st
Sack rate forced
21st
The read
  1. Arizona rank 28th against intermediate throws, which make up 34% of Smith-Njigba's targets.
  2. Work the middle: 22% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 28th defending throws there.
  3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Sam Darnold · against ARI

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)
31st
Intermediate
28th
Deep (20+)
29th
Left side
27th
Middle
28th
Right side
31st
Yards after catch allowed
31st
Sack rate forced
21st
The read
  1. Arizona rank 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 31st against short throws.
  2. Pressure: Arizona are 21st at getting sacks, and Seattle are 17th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)
ARI offence
SEA defence
OverallEPA per play
19th
5th
PassingEPA per dropback
23rd
3rd
RushingEPA per carry
14th
10th
Third downconversion rate
15th
3rd
Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced
14th
15th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Seahawks defence has a 20-place edge.

When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)
SEA offence
ARI defence
OverallEPA per play
24th
26th
PassingEPA per dropback
18th
31st
RushingEPA per carry
30th
7th
Third downconversion rate
27th
14th
Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced
20th
8th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Cardinals defence has a 23-place edge.

Form and history

Last 5 meetingsARI 0 · SEA 5
31-7SEA at ARI
2026-09
22-44ARI at SEA
2025-11
23-20SEA at ARI
2025-09
30-18SEA at ARI
2024-12
6-16ARI at SEA
2024-11

Injury report

Cardinalsmodel impact -0.8
Kenny YeboahTEOut
Kendrick BourneWR · Lower LegIR
Jalen BrooksWR · WristIR
Trey BensonRB · KneeIR
James ConnerRB · FootIR
Jeremiyah LoveRB · AnkleIR
Hunter LongTE · KneeIR
Tip ReimanTE · AnklePUP
Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - MeniscusIR
Paris Johnson Jr.OL · BicepsIR
Isaiah AdamsOL · AnkleIR
Will JohnsonDB · NeckIR
Seahawksmodel impact -0.7
Jacardia WrightRB · FootOut
Jake BoboWR · KneeIR
Robbie OuztsRBIR
Elijah ArroyoTE · ShoulderIR
Mason RichmanOL · KneeIR
Julian NealDB · HamstringIR
Bud ClarkDB · AnkleIR
Drew LockQB · ElbowQuestionable
Velus Jones Jr.WR · HamstringQuestionable
Rashid ShaheedWR · KneeQuestionable
Leonard WilliamsDE · ShoulderQuestionable
Aaron SmithLBQuestionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

ARI odds5.90
SEA odds1.15
ARI fair odds6.13
SEA fair odds1.19
Model vs marketARI +15.1
Kelly stake (capped)0.0%
Bookdraftkings
Rest-1d

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.

What the model sees

Model favors SEA (69%) by 7.2 points.