GB
CLE
CIN
HOU
KC
LAC
JAX
DET
TEN
NYG
MIN
BAL
DAL
LV
DEN
PHI
CHI
8Kyle Pitts
Atlanta Falcons#85 yrs expFlorida78 · 250 lbElite volume, weak after the catch
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified tight end over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
62: situation-dependent
One number for how well Pitts has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified tight end; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 66 (#36 of 62).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 36.5
Receptions over 3.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 36.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  CAR | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 26 | -8.3 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.9 | No |
| 25 wk 18 |  NO | 9 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 39 | -0.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  LA | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 30 | -0.5 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  ARI | 9 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 75 | +8.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  TB | 12 | 11 | 166 | 3 | 86 | +13.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  SEA | 10 | 6 | 90 | 0 | 104 | -0.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  NYJ | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 35 | +7.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 | NO | 5 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 60 | -9.8 | No |
| 25 wk 11 | CAR | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12 | +0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  IND | 5 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 81 | +0.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  NE | 7 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 82 | -3.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  MIA | 9 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 39 | -4.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 |  SF | 10 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 76 | +2.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  BUF | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | -0.5 | No |
| 25 wk 4 |  WAS | 5 | 5 | 70 | 1 | 42 | +7.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 3 | CAR | 6 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 38 | -1.1 | Yes |