CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
GB look like a strong play here. GB have been the more consistent team recently, while ATL have struggled to find their form.
Key matchups
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ATL offenceGB defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Packers defence has a 24-place edge.
When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)GB offenceATL defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Falcons defence has a 21-place edge.
Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Falcons this seasonPackers this season24-25GB at ATL2023-09
Injury report
Falconsmodel impact 0.0| Beaux CollinsWR | IR |
| Trey SermonRB | IR |
| A.J. TerrellCB · Groin | IR |
| JD BertrandLB | IR |
| Anterio ThompsonDT | PUP |
| Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps | IR |
| Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| DeAngelo MaloneDL | PUP |
| Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Storm NortonT · Foot | PUP |
| Samson EbukamDE · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Tyrone WheatleyOL | Questionable |
Packersmodel impact 0.0| Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee | Out |
| Savion WilliamsWR | IR |
| Thomas YassminTE | IR |
| Luke MusgraveTE | PUP |
| Marlon JonesCB | IR |
| Collin OliverDE | IR |
| Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Jordon RileyDL · Achilles | PUP |
| Johnathan BaldwinDB · Knee | IR |
| Jayden ReedWR · Neck | Doubtful |
| Pierre StrongRB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Edgerrin CooperLB · Shoulder | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing yards | 229.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.GB | Passing yards | 203.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.77 | 53% | 30% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.GB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.85 | 33% | 10% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Rushing yards | 77.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 80% | |
| Brian Robinson Jr.GB | Rushing yards | 22.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | |
| Chris BrooksGB | Rushing yards | 16.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 67% | |
| Jordan LoveGB | Rushing yards | 8.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 30% | |
| Kaleb JohnsonGB | Rushing yards | 37.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Rushing yards | 27.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 0% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.GB | Rushing yards | 3.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 40.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Chris BrooksGB | Receiving yards | 8.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 0% | |
| Christian WatsonGBrole up | Receiving yards | 65.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 65.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kyle PittsATL | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Receiving yards | 5.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receiving yards | 54.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Tucker KraftGBrole up | Receiving yards | 44.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 30% | |
| Christian WatsonGBrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 0% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.00 | 47% | 40% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 20% | |
| Kyle PittsATL | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.80 | 52% | 40% | |
| MarShawn LloydGB | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.55 | 37% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.08 | 45% | 0% | |
| Tucker KraftGBrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.66 | 57% | 40% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors GB (70%) by 7.4 points.