This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CIN. MIA have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 4.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Ja'Marr Chase · against MIA

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

62%

Intermediate

29%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

41%

Middle

24%

Right side

35%

How MIA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

31st

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

13th

Middle

29th

Right side

28th

Yards after catch allowed

21st

Sack rate forced

20th

The read

1. Miami rank 31st against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Chase's targets.
2. Work the middle: 24% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 29th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Malik Washington · against CIN

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

72%

Intermediate

12%

Deep (20+)

17%

Left side

46%

Middle

15%

Right side

38%

How CIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

32nd

Intermediate

13th

Deep (20+)

13th

Left side

32nd

Middle

18th

Right side

24th

Yards after catch allowed

32nd

Sack rate forced

10th

The read

1. Cincinnati rank 32nd against short throws, which make up 72% of Washington's targets.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Washington's worst return (-0.70 EPA a target), and Cincinnati are 13th there.
3. Work the left side: 46% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 32nd defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Malik Willis · against CIN

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How CIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

32nd

Intermediate

13th

Deep (20+)

13th

Left side

32nd

Middle

18th

Right side

24th

Yards after catch allowed

32nd

Sack rate forced

10th

The read

1. Cincinnati rank 26th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws.
2. Pressure: Cincinnati are 10th at getting sacks, and Miami are 27th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CIN offence

MIA defence

OverallEPA per play

10th

28th

PassingEPA per dropback

14th

30th

RushingEPA per carry

18th

6th

Third downconversion rate

7th

28th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

14th

28th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Bengals offence has a 21-place edge.

When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIA offence

CIN defence

OverallEPA per play

30th

10th

PassingEPA per dropback

27th

10th

RushingEPA per carry

27th

14th

Third downconversion rate

16th

23rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

27th

3rd

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Bengals defence has a 24-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Bengals this season

W33-27wk 1 vs TBW20-6wk 2 at HOUL27-30wk 3 at PITL17-22wk 4 vs JAX

Dolphins this season

L13-27wk 1 at LVL13-35wk 2 at SFL10-24wk 3 vs KCL10-15wk 4 at MIN

Last 2 meetingsCIN 2 · MIA 0

45-21CIN at MIA
2025-12

15-27MIA at CIN
2022-09

Injury report

Bengalsmodel impact 0.0

Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb	IR
Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring	IR
Ja'Sir TaylorDB	IR
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Concussion	Questionable
Tee HigginsWR · Groin	Questionable
Colbie YoungWR · Knee	Questionable
Swayze BozemanLB · Groin	Questionable
B.J. HillDT · Achilles	Questionable
Bryan CookDB · Ankle	Questionable
Kyle DuggerDB · Quadriceps	Questionable

Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0

Reese TaylorCB · Quadriceps	Out
De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL	IR
Cole TurnerTE	IR
Darrell BakerCB	PUP
Storm DuckCB · Knee	PUP
Kyle LouisLB · Knee	IR
Trey MooreLB · Ankle	IR
Kenneth GrantDL · Leg	IR
Rene KongaDL	IR
Ronnie HarrisonDB · Hamstring	IR
Caleb DouglasWR · Ankle	Questionable
Rob BealLB · Hamstring	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.