JAX
BAL
CIN
ATL
CLE
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
DET
WAS
NYG
PHI
HOU
ARI
SEA
GB
TB
CHI
MIN
SF look like a strong play here. LV have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5. SF have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 23rd against deep balls, and 8% of Bowers's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
- Work the left side: 37% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 31st defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 7th percentile for separation and 59th for hands, and Renardo Green, Deommodore Lenoir and Jack Jones all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LV defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Las Vegas rank 23rd against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Kittle's targets.
- Work the left side: 48% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 25th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 25th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 25th against short throws.
- Pressure: San Francisco are 32nd at getting sacks, and Las Vegas are 28th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LV offenceSF defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the 49ers defence has a 27-place edge.
When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SF offenceLV defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the 49ers offence has a 27-place edge.
Form and history
Raiders this season
27-13wk 1 vs MIAW
26-14wk 2 at LACW
35-27wk 3 at NOL
27-30wk 4 vs KCL
17-45wk 5 at NEL
30-33wk 6 vs BUFL
21-35wk 7 vs LAW
38-33wk 8 at NYJ49ers this season37-34SF at LV2023-01
Injury report
Raidersmodel impact 0.8| Chris CollierRB | IR |
| Carter RunyonTE | IR |
| Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee | IR |
| Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle | IR |
| Brennan JacksonDE | IR |
| Patrick JohnsonLB · Neck | IR |
| Justin PickettG | IR |
| Darien PorterDB · Groin | Questionable |
49ersmodel impact 0.0| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle | IR |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral | PUP |
| Jake TongesTE · Knee | IR |
| Nate HobbsCB · Groin | IR |
| Mikail KamaraDE · Knee | IR |
| Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot | IR |
| Andrew Farmer IILB · Back | IR |
| Nick MartinLB | IR |
| C.J. WestDT | IR |
| Austen PleasantsOL · Knee | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SF (71%) by 9.9 points.