PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to JAX.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 32nd against short throws, which make up 44% of Washington's targets.
- Work the left side: 48% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 11th percentile for separation and 20th for hands, and Daxton Hill, DJ Turner and Jalen Davis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Chase's likeliest route is deep balls (9% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Chase's worst return (-0.02 EPA a target), and Jacksonville are 2nd there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville rank 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (11th).
- Pressure: Jacksonville are 29th at getting sacks, and Cincinnati are 6th at avoiding them.
- Burrow is 98th percentile for accuracy and rarely gives the ball away, so the route to stopping him is the rush, not waiting for mistakes.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)JAX offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Jaguars offence has a 17-place edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offenceJAX defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Jaguars defence has a 13-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Jaguars this seasonBengals this season27-31JAX at CIN2025-09
34-31CIN at JAX2023-12
21-24JAX at CIN2021-09
Injury report
Jaguarsmodel impact 0.0| Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body | IR |
| B.J. GreenDE · Elbow | IR |
| Parker HughesLB | IR |
| Jared BartlettLB · Leg | IR |
| Patrick MekariOL · Back | IR |
| Sam MustipherOL | IR |
| Garrett DiGiorgioG | IR |
| Albert RegisDT · Elbow | Questionable |
Bengalsmodel impact 0.0| Colbie YoungWR · Knee | Out |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb | IR |
| Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
| B.J. HillDT · Achilles | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors JAX (60%) by 3.7 points.