This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NO.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Drake London · against NO

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

50%

Intermediate

35%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

44%

Middle

15%

Right side

41%

How NO defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

19th

Intermediate

7th

Deep (20+)

13th

Left side

20th

Middle

10th

Right side

12th

Yards after catch allowed

12th

Sack rate forced

8th

The read

1. New Orleans rank 19th against short throws, which make up 50% of London's targets.
2. Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and New Orleans rank 20th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Chris Olave · against ATL

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

51%

Intermediate

27%

Deep (20+)

22%

Left side

46%

Middle

13%

Right side

41%

How ATL defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

17th

Intermediate

21st

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

12th

Middle

27th

Right side

9th

Yards after catch allowed

15th

Sack rate forced

4th

The read

1. Atlanta rank 21st against intermediate throws, which make up 27% of Olave's targets.
2. Work the middle: 13% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

ATL offence

NO defence

OverallEPA per play

29th

23rd

PassingEPA per dropback

32nd

20th

RushingEPA per carry

6th

26th

Third downconversion rate

25th

25th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

25th

20th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Falcons offence has a 20-place edge.

When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NO offence

ATL defence

OverallEPA per play

16th

9th

PassingEPA per dropback

18th

14th

RushingEPA per carry

10th

5th

Third downconversion rate

5th

9th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

20th

27th

Biggest gap: overall, where the Falcons defence has a 7-place edge.

Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Falcons this season

L13-20wk 1 at PITL3-34wk 2 vs CARW35-14wk 3 at GB

Saints this season

L30-31wk 1 at DETW24-17wk 2 at BALL27-35wk 3 vs LV

Last 5 meetingsATL 3 · NO 2

17-19NO at ATL
2026-01

24-10ATL at NO
2025-11

17-20ATL at NO
2024-11

24-26NO at ATL
2024-09

17-48ATL at NO
2024-01

Injury report

Falconsmodel impact 0.0

Beaux CollinsWR	IR
Trey SermonRB	IR
A.J. TerrellCB · Groin	IR
JD BertrandLB	IR
Anterio ThompsonDT	PUP
Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps	IR
Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle	IR
DeAngelo MaloneDL	PUP
Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Storm NortonT · Foot	PUP
Samson EbukamDE · Hamstring	Questionable
Tyrone WheatleyOL	Questionable

Saintsmodel impact 0.0

Travis EtienneRB · Hamstring	Out
Mason TiptonWR · Groin	PUP
Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring	IR
Ty ChandlerRB · Knee	IR
Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee	IR
Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip	IR
David LongCB	IR
Jaylan FordLB	IR
Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL	IR
Kelvin BanksOL · Ankle	IR
Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee	PUP

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.