About Fourth and Data
Go For It On Fourth. With Data.
What We Do
Fourth and Data is an NFL prediction platform that combines machine learning with betting analytics. Every week during the NFL season, our model analyses thousands of data points to generate game predictions, confidence ratings, and value picks — all driven by data, not gut feel.
The Model
Our prediction engine uses an ensemble of three machine learning models — Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest — blended together to reduce variance and capture different types of signal in the data.
Each model is trained on historical NFL play-by-play data using EPA-based features (Expected Points Added), rolling averages, and exponentially weighted metrics. All features use strict temporal lagging to prevent data leakage — we only use information that was available before each game.
How Predictions Work
Feature Engineering
We compute rolling EPA metrics, strength of schedule adjustments, and recent form indicators for every team.
Ensemble Prediction
Three ML models independently predict each game. Their probabilities are blended into a single calibrated forecast.
Injury Adjustments
Live injury reports from the Sleeper API are factored in, adjusting EPA expectations based on player impact.
Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 game simulations generate win probabilities, spread predictions, and uncertainty bands.
Confidence & Value
Each prediction gets an F&D Score (confidence tier) and is compared against Vegas lines to identify value opportunities.
Confidence Tiers
Every prediction is assigned a confidence tier based on model agreement, Monte Carlo consistency, and market line comparison.
Track Record
Our model achieves approximately 72% accuracy against the spread across the NFL season. You can see full week-by-week results, confidence tier breakdowns, and ROI analysis on our Results Dashboard.
Data Sources
- -NFL play-by-play data via nfl_data_py (historical and live)
- -Injury reports via Sleeper API (real-time)
- -Market betting lines via The Odds API
Disclaimer
Fourth and Data provides predictions for entertainment and informational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always gamble responsibly. See our Responsible Gambling page for resources.