SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CHI.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ATL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Atlanta rank 25th against intermediate throws, which make up 33% of Odunze's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Chicago rank 28th against deep balls, and 14% of London's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the middle: 16% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 27th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bears have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CHI offenceATL defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Bears offence has a 10-place edge.
When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ATL offenceCHI defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Falcons offence has a 20-place edge.
Form and history
Bears this season
Falcons this season17-37ATL at CHI2023-12
24-27CHI at ATL2022-11
Injury report
Bearsmodel impact -1.9| Anthony JohnsonDB | Out |
| Brittain BrownRB | IR |
| Nikola KalinicTE · Knee | IR |
| Hayden LargeTE | IR |
| Tony FieldsLB | IR |
| Nephi SewellLB · Concussion | IR |
| Braxton JonesOL · Knee | IR |
| Kyler GordonDB | PUP |
| Coby BryantDB · Knee | IR |
| Dayo OdeyingboDE · Quadriceps | Doubtful |
| T.J. EdwardsLB · Hamstring | Doubtful |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Falconsmodel impact 0.0| Beaux CollinsWR | IR |
| Trey SermonRB | IR |
| A.J. TerrellCB · Groin | IR |
| JD BertrandLB | IR |
| Yasir AbdullahLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Anterio ThompsonDT | PUP |
| Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps | IR |
| Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| DeAngelo MaloneDL | PUP |
| Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Storm NortonT · Foot | PUP |
| C.J. HendersonCB · Groin | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Passing yards | 227.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing yards | 236.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 40% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 10% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Rushing yards | 91.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 30% | |
| Cole KmetCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 8.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 90% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 94.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 30% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 24.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 24.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Kyle PittsATLrole up | Receiving yards | 29.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Luther Burden IIIATL | Receiving yards | 51.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 0% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receiving yards | 41.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Zachariah BranchATL | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 40% | |
| Cole KmetCHIrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.49 | 38% | 80% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.10 | 45% | 50% | |
| Drake LondonATL | Receptions | 6.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 40% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.53 | 62% | 20% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Kyle PittsATL | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.38 | 40% | 40% | |
| Luther Burden IIIATL | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.14 | 44% | 0% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.38 | 40% | 50% | |
| Zachariah BranchATL | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.36 | 40% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CHI (53%) by 2.0 points.