NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
NYJ
NYG
HOU
TB
CAR
GB
DET
LV
KC
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to SF. SF have been hot lately, winning 5 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ATL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Atlanta rank 29th against intermediate throws, which make up 41% of Evans's targets.
- Work the middle: 27% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 23rd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 1st percentile for separation and 78th for hands, and AJ Terrell and C.J. Henderson both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 23rd against short throws, which make up 49% of London's targets.
- Work the left side: 42% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 30th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 24th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 23rd against short throws.
- Pressure: San Francisco are 32nd at getting sacks, and Atlanta are 10th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SF offenceATL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the 49ers offence has a 22-place edge.
When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ATL offenceSF defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the 49ers defence has a 16-place edge.
Form and history
49ers this season
27-7wk 1 at LAW
35-13wk 2 vs MIAW
36-30wk 3 vs ARIW
24-14wk 4 vs DENW
32-29wk 5 at SEAW
23-17wk 6 vs WASFalcons this season10-20ATL at SF2025-10
14-28SF at ATL2022-10
13-31ATL at SF2021-12
Injury report
49ersmodel impact -2.1| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Hamstring | Out |
| Garret WallowLB · Hamstring | Out |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle | IR |
| Christian KirkWR · Calf | IR |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral | PUP |
| Jake TongesTE · Knee | IR |
| Nate HobbsCB · Groin | IR |
| Mikail KamaraDE · Knee | IR |
| Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot | IR |
| Andrew Farmer IILB · Back | IR |
Falconsmodel impact -0.8| Beaux CollinsWR | IR |
| Trey SermonRB | IR |
| A.J. Terrell Jr.CB · Groin | IR |
| JD BertrandLB | IR |
| Yasir AbdullahLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Anterio ThompsonDT | PUP |
| Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps | IR |
| Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| DeAngelo MaloneDL | PUP |
| Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Storm NortonT · Foot | PUP |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Shoulder | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdySF | Passing yards | 242.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing yards | 230.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 10% | |
| Brock PurdySF | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 50% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.18 | 43% | 10% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Rushing yards | 83.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 80% | |
| Brian Robinson Jr.ATL | Rushing yards | 28.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 30% | |
| Brock PurdySFrole up | Rushing yards | 18.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Christian McCaffreySF | Rushing yards | 59.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| Kaelon BlackSF | Rushing yards | 28.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 10% | |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL | Rushing yards | 1.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 60% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 26.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Christian McCaffreySF | Receiving yards | 42.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Drake LondonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 84.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| George KittleSFrole up | Receiving yards | 69.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Kyle PittsATLrole up | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Bijan RobinsonATLrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.63 | 58% | 40% | |
| Christian McCaffreySF | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.08 | 45% | 40% | |
| Drake LondonATL | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.76 | 54% | 40% | |
| George KittleSF | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Jahan DotsonATLrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.34 | 40% | 10% | |
| Kyle PittsATL | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.97 | 48% | 40% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SF (72%) by 5.6 points.