This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to BAL.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Zay Flowers · against ATL

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

58%

Intermediate

25%

Deep (20+)

17%

Left side

32%

Middle

28%

Right side

39%

How ATL defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

17th

Intermediate

27th

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

17th

Middle

24th

Right side

9th

Yards after catch allowed

15th

Sack rate forced

6th

The read

1. Atlanta rank 27th against intermediate throws, which make up 25% of Flowers's targets.
2. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 24th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 86th percentile for separation and 14th for hands, and DeAundre Alford, AJ Terrell and C.J. Henderson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Drake London · against BAL

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

52%

Intermediate

32%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

43%

Middle

15%

Right side

41%

How BAL defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

8th

Intermediate

18th

Deep (20+)

27th

Left side

21st

Middle

10th

Right side

21st

Yards after catch allowed

11th

Sack rate forced

29th

The read

1. Baltimore rank 27th against deep balls, and 15% of London's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the left side: 43% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 21st defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Ravens have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

BAL offence

ATL defence

OverallEPA per play

3rd

8th

PassingEPA per dropback

2nd

11th

RushingEPA per carry

6th

1st

Third downconversion rate

26th

11th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

17th

27th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Falcons defence has a 15-place edge.

When the Falcons have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

ATL offence

BAL defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

11th

PassingEPA per dropback

30th

8th

RushingEPA per carry

2nd

22nd

Third downconversion rate

18th

11th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

22nd

24th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Ravens defence has a 22-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Ravens this season

W41-23wk 1 at INDL17-24wk 2 vs NOW34-31wk 3 at DALW24-18wk 4 vs TEN

Falcons this season

L13-20wk 1 at PITL3-34wk 2 vs CARW35-14wk 3 at GBW45-24wk 4 at NO

Last 1 meetingsBAL 1 · ATL 0

9-17ATL at BAL
2022-12

Injury report

Ravensmodel impact 0.0

Durham SmytheTE · Achilles	Out
Skylar ThompsonQB	IR
Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Wrist	IR
Adam RandallRB	IR
Bilhal KoneCB · Lower Body	IR
Jovaughn GwynOL · Lower Leg	IR
Ethan PocicOL · Knee	IR
Danny PinterG · Knee	IR
T.J. TampaDB · Knee	IR
Jahquez RobinsonDB	IR
Lamar JacksonQB · Ankle	Questionable
Chris MooreWR · Ankle	Questionable

Falconsmodel impact 0.0

Beaux CollinsWR	IR
Trey SermonRB	IR
A.J. TerrellCB · Groin	IR
JD BertrandLB	IR
Anterio ThompsonDT	PUP
Da'Shawn HandDT · Quadriceps	IR
Cameron WilliamsOL · Ankle	IR
DeAngelo MaloneDL	PUP
Jalon WalkerDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Storm NortonT · Foot	PUP
Za'Darius SmithLB · Concussion	Questionable
Tyrone WheatleyOL	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.