This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to HOU. LAC have been struggling, dropping 5 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Nico Collins · against LAC

The opening is underneath, not deep

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

41%

Intermediate

40%

Deep (20+)

19%

Left side

35%

Middle

28%

Right side

37%

How LAC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

16th

Intermediate

3rd

Deep (20+)

5th

Left side

5th

Middle

6th

Right side

7th

Yards after catch allowed

27th

Sack rate forced

8th

The read

1. the Chargers rank 16th against short throws and 27th for yards after the catch allowed. Collins takes 41% of his targets short and is 77th percentile after the catch.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 1st percentile for separation and 95th for hands, and Tarheeb Still, Donte Jackson and Benjamin St-Juste all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Ladd McConkey · against HOU

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

52%

Intermediate

31%

Deep (20+)

17%

Left side

33%

Middle

29%

Right side

38%

How HOU defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

8th

Intermediate

12th

Deep (20+)

25th

Left side

20th

Middle

7th

Right side

15th

Yards after catch allowed

10th

Sack rate forced

4th

The read

1. Houston rank 25th against deep balls, and 17% of McConkey's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the left side: 33% of his targets go that way and Houston rank 20th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

C.J. Stroud · against LAC

A tough day in the air

Profile

How LAC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

16th

Intermediate

3rd

Deep (20+)

5th

Left side

5th

Middle

6th

Right side

7th

Yards after catch allowed

27th

Sack rate forced

8th

The read

1. the Chargers rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (16th).
2. Pressure: the Chargers are 8th at getting sacks, and Houston are 7th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

HOU offence

LAC defence

OverallEPA per play

13th

9th

PassingEPA per dropback

12th

8th

RushingEPA per carry

25th

22nd

Third downconversion rate

23rd

4th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

12th

21st

Biggest gap: third down, where the Chargers defence has a 19-place edge.

When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LAC offence

HOU defence

OverallEPA per play

32nd

22nd

PassingEPA per dropback

32nd

20th

RushingEPA per carry

31st

25th

Third downconversion rate

28th

17th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

29th

5th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Texans defence has a 24-place edge.

Form and history

Texans this season

L31-36wk 1 vs BUFL6-20wk 2 vs CINL17-19wk 3 at INDL30-34wk 4 vs DALW26-3wk 5 at TENW34-31wk 6 at JAXL21-27wk 7 vs NYG

Chargers this season

L14-26wk 1 vs ARIL14-26wk 2 vs LVL16-24wk 3 at BUFL23-30wk 4 at SEAL17-23wk 5 vs DENL6-22wk 6 at KCL9-24wk 8 at LA

Last 4 meetingsHOU 3 · LAC 1

20-16HOU at LAC
2025-12

12-32LAC at HOU
2025-01

34-24LAC at HOU
2022-10

29-41LAC at HOU
2021-12

Injury report

Texansmodel impact 0.0

Jawhar JordanRB	Out
Noah WhittingtonRB · Quadriceps	Out
Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL	IR
Jaylin NoelWR · Toe	IR
Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL	IR
British BrooksRB · Hamstring	IR
Jaylin SmithCB · Hamstring	IR
Mario Edwards Jr.DE · Knee - ACL	IR
Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle	IR
Ali GayeDE · Knee	IR
Jake HummelLB · Groin	IR
E.J. SpeedLB · Quadriceps	PUP

Chargersmodel impact 0.0

Evan SvobodaTE	Out
Trey LanceQB · Groin	IR
David NjokuTE · Lower Leg	IR
Denzel PerrymanLB	IR
Tyler BiadaszC · Knee	IR
Alec IngoldFB	IR
Trey Pipkins IIIT · Knee	IR
Trevor PenningT · Concussion	IR
Derwin James Jr.DB · Hamstring	IR
Isaiah WorldOT · Knee	PUP
Rashawn SlaterT · Ankle	IR
Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.