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Steelers · 2026 · 6-2

Pittsburgh, every week

A deep dive after every game, a preview before it, and on a short week one piece: what went wrong and what to fix for the next opponent.

W20-13wk 1 vs ATLL3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL24-27wk 4 at CLEW34-22wk 5 vs INDW26-19wk 6 at TBW16-10wk 7 at NOW27-6wk 8 vs CLE
Where they rank · of 32, through week 8
Offence21stEPA per play
Defence6thEPA allowed
Third downs21st38% converted
Pass defence7thEPA per dropback allowed
Pass rush3rd8.2% sack rate
Passing27thEPA per dropback
The roster · F&D form, last 17 games

Who's playing well

All players
Offence
Mason RudolphQB75Aaron RodgersQB · 60 established63Jaylen WarrenRB · 98 established98Rico DowdleRB · 61 established77Roman WilsonWR70Michael PittmanWR · 68 established64DK MetcalfWR · 86 established64Germie BernardWR59Isaiah HodginsWR57Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · 49 established49Pat FreiermuthTE · 88 established91Darnell WashingtonTE · 79 established85
Defence
Alex HighsmithLB · 88 established94T.J. WattLB · 97 established92Nick HerbigLB · 87 established71KJ HenryDL63Jack SawyerLB62Cameron HeywardDL · 86 established93Keeanu BentonDL · 78 established87Derrick HarmonDL73Sebastian Joseph-DayDL · 75 established71Yahya BlackDL50Payton WilsonLB · 80 established96Cole HolcombLB · 50 established53Patrick QueenLB · 55 established53Elandon RobertsLB · 56 established46Jamel DeanDB · 78 established93Terell SmithDB68Jalen RamseyDB · 57 established59Sean Murphy-BuntingDB · 54 established58Asante Samuel Jr.DB · 46 established56Brandin EcholsDB · 65 established55Jaquan BriskerDB · 72 established88DeShon ElliottDB · 83 established86
20,000 simulated seasons

Where the season lands

Played games fixed at their real results, the rest simulated with the model. Re-run every Tuesday; this run is through week 8.

Wins10.8
Playoffs81%
Division33%
Super Bowl2.6%
12345678910111213141516

Final win total, share of simulations. Gold is the most likely.

Steelers breakdowns

Steelers · deep dive · week 8

Pittsburgh win 27‑6: the offence moved the ball, but red-zone trips came up empty

Week 8, vs Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 4th of 28 this week; red-zone TD rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 8

Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 6: how it played out

We had Pittsburgh at 66%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3.5. Pittsburgh won 27-6 at Acrisure Stadium. Deshaun Watson was hurt during the game and came back; Shedeur Sanders (2 dropbacks) filled in.

3 min
Steelers · preview · week 8

Pittsburgh at home to Cleveland: the model leans PIT

CLE at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 66%, market PIT 63%.

4 min
We checked · week 7

We checked: is DK Metcalf really not getting open?

Commentators keep saying Metcalf can't create space, so the big plays have dried up. The tracking data says the space was never there. The deep ball is what's changed.

5 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 7

Pittsburgh win 16‑10: third downs went our way, but red-zone trips came up empty

Week 7, at New Orleans. Third-down conversion ranked 3rd of 28 this week; red-zone TD rate ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 7

Pittsburgh 16, New Orleans 10: how it played out

We had Pittsburgh at 63%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 16-10 at Stade de France.

3 min
Steelers · preview · week 7

Pittsburgh away at New Orleans: the model leans PIT

PIT v NO in Paris, Sunday 1:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model PIT 64%, market PIT 61%.

4 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 6

Pittsburgh win 26‑19: the defence dominated, but the offence stalled

Week 6, at Tampa Bay. EPA per play allowed ranked 2nd of 28 this week; EPA per play ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 6

Pittsburgh 26, Tampa Bay 19: what we missed

We had Tampa Bay at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Pittsburgh won 26-19 at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).

3 min
Steelers · preview · week 6

Pittsburgh away at Tampa Bay: the model leans PIT

PIT at TB, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.

4 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 5

Pittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled

Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 5

Pittsburgh 34, Indianapolis 22: how it played out

We had Pittsburgh at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 34-22 at Acrisure Stadium.

3 min
Steelers · preview · week 5

Pittsburgh at home to Indianapolis: the model leans PIT

IND at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.

4 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 4

Pittsburgh 27‑24 loss: the offence stalled

Week 4, at Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 1st of 2 this week; EPA per play ranked 2nd. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min
Rewind · week 4

Cleveland 27, Pittsburgh 24: our lean held, the market's didn't

We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.

3 min
Steelers · deep dive · week 3

Pittsburgh win 30‑27: the offence moved the ball, but the defence got pushed around

Week 3, vs Cincinnati. Explosive-play rate ranked 3rd of 32 this week; EPA per play allowed ranked 30th. Here's what the data says happened.

5 min