This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to LA.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Puka Nacua · against WAS

The opening is underneath, not deep

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

65%

Intermediate

22%

Deep (20+)

13%

Left side

33%

Middle

22%

Right side

44%

How WAS defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

29th

Deep (20+)

24th

Left side

18th

Middle

27th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

23rd

Sack rate forced

16th

The read

1. Washington rank 26th against short throws and 23rd for yards after the catch allowed. Nacua takes 65% of his targets short and is 92nd percentile after the catch.
2. Work the right side: 44% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 30th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Stefon Diggs · against LA

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

72%

Intermediate

15%

Deep (20+)

14%

Left side

37%

Middle

29%

Right side

34%

How LA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

3rd

Intermediate

11th

Deep (20+)

3rd

Left side

4th

Middle

15th

Right side

3rd

Yards after catch allowed

20th

Sack rate forced

28th

The read

1. the Rams are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Diggs's likeliest route is intermediate throws (15% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 58th percentile for separation and 21st for hands, and Emmanuel Forbes, Josh Wallace, Cobie Durant and Jaylen Watson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Matthew Stafford · against WAS

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How WAS defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

29th

Deep (20+)

24th

Left side

18th

Middle

27th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

23rd

Sack rate forced

16th

The read

1. Washington rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 29th against intermediate throws.
2. Pressure: Washington are 16th at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LA offence

WAS defence

OverallEPA per play

10th

20th

PassingEPA per dropback

17th

21st

RushingEPA per carry

7th

15th

Third downconversion rate

7th

25th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

6th

23rd

Biggest gap: third down, where the Rams offence has a 18-place edge.

When the Commanders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

WAS offence

LA defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

3rd

PassingEPA per dropback

19th

4th

RushingEPA per carry

20th

3rd

Third downconversion rate

31st

6th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

16th

28th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Rams defence has a 25-place edge.

Form and history

Rams this season

L7-27wk 1 vs SFW28-6wk 2 vs NYGL26-30wk 3 at DENW24-20wk 4 at PHIL34-37wk 5 vs BUFL16-18wk 6 vs ARIW35-21wk 7 at LVW24-9wk 8 vs LAC

Commanders this season

L22-24wk 1 at PHIL20-37wk 2 at DALW33-31wk 3 vs SEAL13-30wk 4 vs INDT27-27wk 5 vs NYGL17-23wk 6 at SFW27-10wk 8 vs PHI

Last 1 meetingsLA 1 · WAS 0

20-28WAS at LA
2023-12

Injury report

Ramsmodel impact 0.0

No players on the injury report.

Commandersmodel impact 0.0

Jaylin LaneWR · Ankle	IR
Terry McLaurinWR · Knee	IR
Jeremy McNicholsRB · Foot	IR
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Groin	IR
Leo ChenalLB · Neck	IR
Javon KinlawDT · Knee	IR
Daron PayneDT · Foot	IR
Laremy TunsilOL · Triceps	IR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDL · Pectoral	IR
Javontae Jean-BaptisteDL · Pectoral	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.