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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Bengals
won by 14
Final · week 2
20–6
at Reliant Stadium · Sun 20 Sept
Texans
lost by 14

How the game swung

The Texans' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2 03:37: CIN score (6-0)Q2 03:29: CIN score (7-0)Q2 01:20: HOU score (7-3)Q3 12:32: CIN score (10-3)Q3 03:12: CIN score (16-3)Q3 03:03: CIN score (17-3)Q3 00:39: HOU score (17-6)Q4 12:21: CIN score (20-6)1234HOU winning ↑CIN winning ↓
■ Texans ahead■ Bengals ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q2 6:58 - Houston fourth down conversion by B.Fisher (-10% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 13:28 · Fourth down
K.Kroeger EPA -3.3

(Field Goal formation) 38-K.Kroeger to CIN 24 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 38-K.Kroeger pass incomplete short right.

+6%win chance to CIN
2
Q2 6:58 · Fourth down
D.Montgomery EPA -4.3

57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

+10%win chance to CIN
3
Q4 3:20 · Fourth down
C.Stroud EPA -3.1

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Wayne (27-J.Battle).

+1%win chance to CIN
4
Q4 0:19 · Fourth down
C.Stroud EPA -2.4

(:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at CIN 38 for -19 yards (52-C.Johnson).

+0%win chance to CIN

Every drive

Bengals drive left to right, Texans right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 8 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 30 yds
Q1
Downs · 12 pl · 86 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 21 yds
Q2
Downs · 7 pl · 48 yds
Q2
TD · 7 pl · 81 yds
Q2
FG · 8 pl · 49 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 10 yds
Q2
Half · 3 pl · 18 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q3
FG · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q3
Missed FG · 7 pl · 38 yds
Q3
TD · 8 pl · 57 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 42 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 33 yds
Q4
Punt · 4 pl · 30 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 7 yds
Q4
Downs · 6 pl · 15 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q4
Downs · 11 pl · 37 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
CIN goal2040504020HOU goal

Side by side

268
Total yards
374
-0.09
EPA per play
-0.25
31%
Success rate
33%
12
First downs
18
5
Sacks taken
4
0
Turnovers
0
5/15
Third downs
5/17
Bengals leaders
PassingJ.Burrow20/31 · 207 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingC.Brown20 car · 80 yds
ReceivingT.Higgins5/10 · 95 yds
Texans leaders
PassingC.Stroud30/55 · 353 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingC.Stroud3 car · 29 yds
ReceivingD.Schultz12/14 · 140 yds

Scoring

Q2 03:37(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q2 03:292-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.7-0
Q2 01:2015-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.7-3
Q3 12:322-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.10-3
Q3 03:12(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-3
Q3 03:032-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.17-3
Q3 00:39(:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 ya17-6
Q4 12:212-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.20-6

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had CIN 55%, the market HOU 57%. It finished CIN 20, HOU 6.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.