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PHIPittsburgh away at Tampa Bay: the model leans PIT
PIT at TB, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.
Week 6, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Pittsburgh are away at Tampa Bay. Before anyone makes a call, here's how the two teams have actually played so far and where the model and the market sit.
How they have played so far
| PIT | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.05 (21st) | -0.09 (27th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.00 (18th) | -0.06 (7th) |
| Offence success rate | 42% (21st) | 41% (23rd) |
| Third-down conversion | 35% (27th) | 40% (18th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 22% (14th) | 25% (22nd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 18% (27th) | 20% (23rd) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 65% (14th) | 47% (31st) |
Season to date, weeks 1-5 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Tampa Bay's defence (7th) should have the upper hand on Pittsburgh's offence (21st). Pittsburgh's protection (14th in pressure allowed) should hold up against Tampa Bay's rush (23rd).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 5 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
DK Metcalf against Tampa Bay: no obvious soft spot. Tampa Bay are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Metcalf's likeliest route is deep balls (24% of his targets), where they rank 12th. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 25th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
T.J. Watt against Tampa Bay: a line to get after. Tampa Bay give up a sack on 7.2% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 20th of 32 (a line that leaks). Watt is 72nd percentile for pressures and 83rd for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.
Emeka Egbuka against Pittsburgh: best way in: intermediate throws. Pittsburgh rank 27th against intermediate throws, which make up 39% of Egbuka's targets. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 38th percentile for separation and 17th for hands, and Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Pittsburgh at 51% (low confidence), with a line of TB by 1.4. The market agrees on the side at 56% (PIT by 2.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
TB starting QB Baker Mayfield is Doubtful
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-15T09-10-45Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
