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PHIPittsburgh away at New Orleans: the model leans PIT
PIT v NO in Paris, Sunday 1:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Model PIT 64%, market PIT 61%.
Week 7, Sunday 1:30pm UK (9:30am ET). Pittsburgh are away at New Orleans. Before anyone makes a call, here's how the two teams have actually played so far and where the model and the market sit.
How they have played so far
| PIT | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.08 (23rd) | -0.05 (20th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.06 (5th) | +0.07 (25th) |
| Offence success rate | 41% (23rd) | 42% (20th) |
| Third-down conversion | 35% (28th) | 43% (12th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 21% (13th) | 21% (14th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 18% (28th) | 16% (32nd) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 62% (14th) | 78% (3rd) |
Season to date, weeks 1-6 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Pittsburgh's protection (13th in pressure allowed) should hold up against New Orleans's rush (32nd). Pittsburgh's defence (5th) should have the upper hand on New Orleans's offence (20th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 6 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Away from home, for both of them
Pittsburgh are 1-1 in 2 international games since 2007; New Orleans are 3-1 in 4 international games since 2007. Neither travel record goes into the model: samples that small say more about the opponents they drew than about playing abroad.
Matchups to watch
DK Metcalf against New Orleans: the shot plays are there. New Orleans rank 24th against deep balls, and 23% of Metcalf's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
T.J. Watt against New Orleans: a line to get after. New Orleans give up a sack on 7.3% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 23rd of 32 (a line that leaks). Watt is 70th percentile for pressures and 75th for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.
Chris Olave against Pittsburgh: the shot plays are there. Pittsburgh rank 26th against deep balls, and 25% of Olave's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Pittsburgh at 64% (low confidence), with a line of PIT by 3.4. The market agrees on the side at 61% (PIT by 3). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-22T09-10-53Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
