This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to IND.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

DK Metcalf · against IND

Best way in: deep balls

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

53%

Intermediate

22%

Deep (20+)

25%

Left side

42%

Middle

18%

Right side

39%

How IND defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

18th

Intermediate

21st

Deep (20+)

17th

Left side

18th

Middle

20th

Right side

17th

Yards after catch allowed

18th

Sack rate forced

24th

The read

1. Indianapolis rank 17th against deep balls, which make up 25% of Metcalf's targets.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 25th percentile for separation and 56th for hands, and Mekhi Blackmon and Sauce Gardner both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

T.J. Watt · against IND

A line that holds up

Profile

The read

1. Indianapolis give up a sack on 5.4% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 11th of 32 (a line that holds up).
2. Watt is 85th percentile for sacks, but against this protection his splash plays (99th percentile) may matter more than sack volume: a strip or a batted ball can swing it.

Tyler Warren · against PIT

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

78%

Intermediate

21%

Deep (20+)

1%

Left side

39%

Middle

24%

Right side

37%

How PIT defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

9th

Intermediate

23rd

Deep (20+)

32nd

Left side

14th

Middle

12th

Right side

20th

Yards after catch allowed

23rd

Sack rate forced

14th

The read

1. Pittsburgh rank 23rd against intermediate throws, which make up 21% of Warren's targets.
2. Work the right side: 37% of his targets go that way and Pittsburgh rank 20th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

IND offence

PIT defence

OverallEPA per play

24th

14th

PassingEPA per dropback

31st

16th

RushingEPA per carry

3rd

17th

Third downconversion rate

15th

8th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

15th

8th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Steelers defence has a 15-place edge.

When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

PIT offence

IND defence

OverallEPA per play

28th

26th

PassingEPA per dropback

28th

24th

RushingEPA per carry

7th

28th

Third downconversion rate

27th

4th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

24th

17th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Colts defence has a 23-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Colts this season

L23-41wk 1 vs BALL30-33wk 2 at KCW19-17wk 3 vs HOUW30-13wk 4 at WAS

Steelers this season

W20-13wk 1 vs ATLL3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL24-27wk 4 at CLE

Last 4 meetingsIND 2 · PIT 2

20-27IND at PIT
2025-11

24-27PIT at IND
2024-09

13-30PIT at IND
2023-12

24-17PIT at IND
2022-11

Injury report

Coltsmodel impact 0.0

Arden KeyDE · Hamstring	Out
Alec PierceWR · Heel	IR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen	IR
Will MalloryTE · Thumb	IR
Carson TowtTE	IR
Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe	IR
Cameron MitchellDB	IR
Keenan AllenWR · Groin	Questionable
Jaylon CarliesDB	Questionable

Steelersmodel impact 0.0

Max HurlemanCB	Out
Donte KentCB	PUP
Logan LeeDL	IR
Gennings DunkerOT · Knee	IR
Derrick HarmonDL · Foot	IR
DeShon ElliottDB	IR
Jack DriscollT	IR
Jamel DeanCB · Ankle	Doubtful
Rico DowdleRB · Toe	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.