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Steelers · deep dive · week 5, 2026

Pittsburgh win 34‑22: the red zone was clinical, but the offence stalled

Week 5, vs Indianapolis. Red-zone TD rate ranked 1st of 30 this week; success rate ranked 17th. Here's what the data says happened.

15 Oct 2026 · 5 min read
100%red-zone td rate

The Steelers beat Indianapolis 34-22 in week 5. As a fan I'd like to tell you it was all one thing. The numbers say it wasn't, so here's the game broken down the same way we'd break down anyone else's: protection, who got open, the calls, the drives, and the defence.

+0.24Offence EPA/play5th of 30 this week
44%Success rateleague 42%
+0.00Defence EPA/play allowed16th of 30
36%Third downs11 attempts, avg 6.8 to go
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 09:02: IND score (3-0)Q1 08:57: PIT score (3-6)Q1 08:45: PIT score (3-7)Q1 07:00: IND score (6-7)Q2 13:20: PIT score (6-13)Q2 13:17: PIT score (6-14)Q2 07:48: IND score (12-14)Q2 07:43: IND score (13-14)Q2 00:25: PIT score (13-17)Q3 10:25: IND score (16-17)Q3 07:16: PIT score (16-23)Q3 07:06: PIT score (16-24)Q3 02:17: IND score (19-24)Q4 11:46: IND score (22-24)Q4 06:40: PIT score (22-30)Q4 06:35: PIT score (22-31)Q4 03:47: PIT score (22-34)12345PIT winning ↑IND winning ↓
■ Steelers ahead■ Colts ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays
The Steelers' chance of winning, play by play. Every swing play and drive on the game page.

Protection

PFR's pressure charting for week 5 hasn't landed yet, so this section leans on play-by-play: 2 of 33 dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack.

A.Rodgers: EPA per dropback, clean vs hit or sacked (week 5)

Clean, PIT (31)+0.025Clean, league+0.212Hit or sacked, PIT (2)+1.841Hit or sacked, league-0.953

Who got open, and where the ball went

PlayerTgtSep (yd)Catch %Yds
Germie Bernard92.467%80
Pat Freiermuth72.271%44

Targets vs separation (Next Gen Stats, week 5; league average separation 2.9 yd)

On 32 charted passes, A.Rodgers threw to his first read 0% of the time (league 4%) and checked down on 0% (league 1%). Play action was used on 0% of snaps (league 1%). FTN charted 0 interception-worthy throws and 0 drops.

The calls and the drives

In neutral situations (early downs, within a score, first three quarters) Pittsburgh threw on 69% of plays (league 49%). Passes were worth +0.13 EPA and runs +0.42. 36% of third downs were 7+ yards to go (league 47%) — so early downs mostly kept them on schedule; the problem was converting.

10 drives, 4 trips inside the 20, 100% of them finished with a touchdown (league 67%). Drive endings: 4 touchdowns, 3 punts, 2 field goals, 1 end of half.

The defence

Indianapolis managed +0.00 EPA per play against us (16th of 30 defences this week), converted 27% of third downs, and we got 1 sack and 0 takeaways. Season to date the offence ranks 21st and the defence 18th of 32 by EPA per play.

Who won the matchups

DK Metcalf against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Metcalf held to 12 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 56.

T.J. Watt against Indianapolis: Indianapolis won it. Watt didn't register a sack or a QB hit.

Tyler Warren against Pittsburgh: Warren won it. 83 yards on 9 targets, above his usual 40.

What to fix vs Tampa Bay

Success rate: 44% this week, 17th of 30 (league 42%). Tampa Bay rank 7th of 32 in EPA per play allowed so far (-0.06, league +0.01). Stay on schedule: early-down efficiency is what keeps third downs manageable. Third-down conversion: 36% this week, 17th of 30 (league 40%). Tampa Bay rank 6th of 32 in third-down conversion allowed so far (34%, league 41%). The distances were manageable, so this is execution on the money down — the calls and the throws on third, not the early downs.

Data still landing

Not available when this was drafted: PFR pressure charting for week 5. Those sections use play-by-play instead.

Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; Next Gen Stats; FTN charting. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.