DAL
PHIPittsburgh 16, New Orleans 10: how it played out
We had Pittsburgh at 63%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 16-10 at Stade de France.
We had Pittsburgh at 63%. The market had Pittsburgh by 3. Pittsburgh won 16-10 at Stade de France. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 2nd quarter (8:34), Aaron Rodgers found DK Metcalf for 51 yards, a 21-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
4. In the 3rd quarter (12:53), Tyler Shough found Devaughn Vele for 24 yards, a 15-point swing in win probability towards New Orleans.
5. In the 3rd quarter (7:43), Payton Wilson intercepted Tyler Shough's short throw for Chris Olave, a 21-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against New Orleans: Metcalf won it. Metcalf won it deep: 51 of his 56 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.
T.J. Watt against New Orleans: Watt won it. 1 sack and 1 other QB hit, against his usual 1.4 sacks and hits a game.
Chris Olave against Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh won it. Olave held to 56 yards on 10 targets, against his usual 88.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 7; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-25T09-12-48Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
