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NOCleveland 27, Pittsburgh 24: we called it, the market didn't
We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.
We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field. We were right, and the market was wrong.
How it swung
Q1 5:49: A.Rodgers pass short right to M.Pittman for 9 yards. (12% win-probability swing.) Q4 1:42: TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. (14% win-probability swing.) Q4 0:15: A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Holder-C.Bojorquez. (22% win-probability swing.)
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Cleveland: Even. Metcalf had 115 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 51.
T.J. Watt against Cleveland: Watt won it. 1 sack and 2 combined sacks and QB hits, above his usual 1.5.
Harold Fannin Jr. against Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh won it. Jr. held to 27 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 44.
The model's call held up. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 4; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-01T09-09-17Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.