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SEAWe checked: is DK Metcalf really not getting open?
Commentators keep saying Metcalf can't create space, so the big plays have dried up. The tracking data says the space was never there. The deep ball is what's changed.
Watch a Steelers game this season and you'll hear it: DK Metcalf is struggling to get open, so he barely gets the chance to make big plays. We tested both halves of that with the NFL's player tracking (Next Gen Stats) and FTN's play-by-play charting, through week 7.
Can he get open? Not much, but he never could
Separation is the distance to the nearest defender when the ball arrives. Metcalf's 2.48 yards puts him in the 27th percentile of receivers this season. That sounds damning until you look back: 18th in 2023, 19th in 2024, 35th in 2025. He has always been a contested-catch receiver who wins with size on vertical routes, and deeper routes come with less space. Adjusted for how far downfield he's targeted, he sits in the 33rd percentile.
| Season | Metcalf | League median | Percentile | Adjusted for depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (SEA) | 2.45 | 2.82 | 18th | 49th |
| 2024 (SEA) | 2.56 | 2.97 | 19th | 49th |
| 2025 (PIT) | 2.63 | 2.76 | 35th | 21st |
| 2026 (PIT) | 2.48 | 2.77 | 27th | 33rd |
Average separation at the catch point (yards), wide receivers with enough targets
He is tightly covered more than most: 23% of his targets are contested, against 16% across the league. That's not new either.
The big plays have collapsed
| Season | Targets | 20+ yd catches | Per 100 targets | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 119 | 19 | 16.0 | 90th |
| 2024 | 109 | 20 | 18.3 | 96th |
| 2025 | 99 | 15 | 15.2 | 87th |
| 2026 | 58 | 4 | 6.9 | 34th |
Catches of 20+ yards (regular season)
This is the real change. 4 catches of 20+ yards on 58 targets is 6.9 per 100, the 34th percentile. He averaged 16.5 per 100 over the previous three seasons. If he were still producing at that rate, the chance of a start this quiet is about 4%, so it is probably not just bad luck.
So what changed? The deep ball
He is still being sent deep. But of his 15 targets thrown 20+ yards downfield, he has caught 3 (20%), against 37% for the league. FTN charts every throw for whether it was catchable, and only 31% of the deep balls to Metcalf were, against 45% league-wide. (FTN's charting runs to week 6 so far, 13 of those deep targets.) Last season it was 33%. In 2024, with Geno Smith throwing to him in Seattle, it was 50%. Metcalf hasn't helped himself either: 4 drops.
Is it the line or Rodgers?
If the offensive line were the problem, Aaron Rodgers would be under pressure more than most and throwing early to survive. He isn't. Pittsburgh's quarterbacks have been pressured on 19% of dropbacks, against a league median of 20%. His average time to throw is 2.74 seconds, close to the league median of 2.86. He has had time.
He does throw short: his average pass is aimed 7.0 yards downfield, the 21st percentile. But when the pocket is clean he still takes the deep shot, on 10.5% of throws against 10.1% for the league. And the deep balls that sail out of play aren't throwaways: he throws it away on 4.3% of passes, the league rate is 4.3%.
Half right. Metcalf doesn't get much space, but that's who he has always been. What's changed since he moved to Pittsburgh is the deep ball: Aaron Rodgers is taking the shots and too many of them aren't catchable. The line isn't the cause.
How much to trust it: 15 deep targets is a small sample, and one long catch moves these numbers. "Catchable" is a judgement by FTN's charters, not a measurement.
Sources: NFL Next Gen Stats via nflverse (separation, time to throw); FTN charting via nflverse; nflverse play-by-play; Pro Football Reference via nflverse (pressures). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
