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4DK Metcalf
Pittsburgh Steelers#47 yrs expMississippi76 · 235 lbElite after the catch, weak hands
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
78: quality starter
One number for how well Metcalf has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 86 (#27 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 52.5
Receptions over 4.5
Where Metcalf can hurt the Bengals
How he gets his production, set against how the Bengals have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 31st against short throws and 32nd for yards after the catch allowed. Metcalf takes 57% of his targets short and is 97th percentile after the catch.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Metcalf's worst return (-0.38 EPA a target), and Cincinnati are 15th there.
- Work the left side: 45% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 31st defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 29th percentile for separation and 25th for hands, and Daxton Hill, DJ Turner and Jalen Davis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
CIN's corners, last 17 games
Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.
| Corner | Targets | Yds / target | Catch % | Depth faced | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daxton Hill | 82 | 6.2 | 59% | 7.7 | 86 |
| DJ Turner | 70 | 6.5 | 50% | 11.5 | 79 |
| Jalen Davis | 27 | 7.0 | 63% | 8.7 | 77 |
| Josh Newton | 21 | 7.7 | 57% | 9.6 | 84 |
The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 52.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  NE | 9 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 62 | -3.2 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  ATL | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 204 | -5.4 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  DET | 9 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 105 | +0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 15 |  MIA | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 | 33 | +6.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  BAL | 12 | 7 | 148 | 0 | 166 | +6.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  BUF | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 24 | +4.9 | No |
| 25 wk 12 |  CHI | 8 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 49 | -4.6 | No |
| 25 wk 11 | CIN | 8 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 88 | +0.6 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  LAC | 7 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 118 | -7.7 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  IND | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -2.2 | No |
| 25 wk 8 |  GB | 7 | 5 | 55 | 1 | 69 | +3.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 | CIN | 5 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 93 | +0.4 | No |
| 25 wk 6 |  CLE | 9 | 4 | 95 | 1 | 151 | +4.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  MIN | 5 | 5 | 126 | 1 | 34 | +10.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 3 | NE | 4 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 34 | +2.6 | No |
| 25 wk 2 |  SEA | 6 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 45 | +2.0 | No |
| 25 wk 1 |  NYJ | 7 | 4 | 83 | 0 | 28 | +5.5 | Yes |