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PHIPittsburgh win 26‑19: the defence dominated, but the offence stalled
Week 6, at Tampa Bay. EPA per play allowed ranked 2nd of 28 this week; EPA per play ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.
The Steelers beat Tampa Bay 26-19 in week 6. As a fan I'd like to tell you it was all one thing. The numbers say it wasn't, so here's the game broken down the same way we'd break down anyone else's: protection, who got open, the calls, the drives, and the defence.
Protection
PFR's pressure charting for week 6 hasn't landed yet, so this section leans on play-by-play: 10 of 52 dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack.
A.Rodgers: EPA per dropback, clean vs hit or sacked (week 6)
Who got open, and where the ball went
| Player | Tgt | Sep (yd) | Catch % | Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 15 | 3.5 | 73% | 93 |
| Germie Bernard | 12 | 6.0 | 92% | 87 |
| Darnell Washington | 6 | 3.6 | 67% | 25 |
Targets vs separation (Next Gen Stats, week 6; league average separation 3.0 yd)
On 54 charted passes, A.Rodgers threw to his first read 43% of the time (league 49%) and checked down on 6% (league 8%). Play action was used on 6% of snaps (league 9%), worth -0.58 EPA per pass against -0.21 without it. FTN charted 1 interception-worthy throw and 3 drops.
The calls and the drives
In neutral situations (early downs, within a score, first three quarters) Pittsburgh threw on 38% of plays (league 50%). Passes were worth -0.26 EPA and runs -0.04. 53% of third downs were 7+ yards to go (league 49%) — the tell that first and second down kept going backwards.
15 drives, 4 trips inside the 20, 50% of them finished with a touchdown (league 58%). Drive endings: 5 punts, 4 field goals, 2 touchdowns, 1 turnover.
The defence
Tampa Bay managed -0.30 EPA per play against us (2nd of 28 defences this week), converted 32% of third downs, and we got 5 sacks and 2 takeaways. Season to date the offence ranks 23rd and the defence 5th of 32 by EPA per play.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Tampa Bay: Metcalf won it. 93 yards on 15 targets, against his usual 55.
T.J. Watt against Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay won it. Watt didn't register a sack or a QB hit.
Emeka Egbuka against Pittsburgh: Egbuka won it. 48 yards on 16 targets, above his usual 40.
EPA per play: -0.20 this week, 25th of 28 (league -0.04). New Orleans rank 25th of 32 in EPA per play allowed so far (+0.07, league -0.00). Stay on schedule: early-down efficiency is what keeps third downs manageable. Third-down conversion: 33% this week, 16th of 28 (league 39%). New Orleans rank 29th of 32 in third-down conversion allowed so far (47%, league 40%). Win first and second down. Third-and-long is where this offence has been losing drives.
Not available when this was drafted: PFR pressure charting for week 6. Those sections use play-by-play instead.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; Next Gen Stats; FTN charting. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
