NE
CHI
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to PIT.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NO defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New Orleans rank 24th against deep balls, and 23% of Metcalf's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
- New Orleans give up a sack on 7.3% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 23rd of 32 (a line that leaks).
- Watt is 70th percentile for pressures and 75th for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PIT defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Pittsburgh rank 26th against deep balls, and 25% of Olave's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PIT offenceNO defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Steelers offence has a 28-place edge.
When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NO offencePIT defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Steelers defence has a 15-place edge.
Form and history
Steelers this seasonSaints this season10-20NO at PIT2022-11
Injury report
Steelersmodel impact -1.4| Max HurlemanCB | Out |
| Roman WilsonWR · Finger | IR |
| Michael Pittman Jr.WR · Foot | IR |
| Donte KentCB | PUP |
| Logan LeeDL | IR |
| Gennings DunkerOT · Knee | IR |
| Derrick HarmonDL · Foot | IR |
| DeShon ElliottDB | IR |
| Jack DriscollT | IR |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Calf | Questionable |
| Rico DowdleRB · Knee | Questionable |
| Brandin EcholsCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Saintsmodel impact -2.5| Mason TiptonWR · Groin | PUP |
| Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring | IR |
| Travis Etienne Jr.RB · Hamstring | IR |
| Ty ChandlerRB · Knee | IR |
| Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee | IR |
| Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip | IR |
| David Long Jr.CB | IR |
| Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Kelvin Banks Jr.OL · Ankle | IR |
| Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee | PUP |
| CJ DonaldsonRB · Shoulder | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing yards | 238.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO | Passing yards | 229.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.38 | 40% | 0% | |
| Aaron RodgersPITrole up | Rushing yards | 1.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 40% | |
| Alvin KamaraNO | Rushing yards | 17.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 80% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Rushing yards | 64.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Kendre MillerNO | Rushing yards | 38.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Rico DowdlePITrole up | Rushing yards | 29.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 80% | |
| Tyler ShoughNO | Rushing yards | 16.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 10% | |
| Alvin KamaraNO | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 90% | |
| Bryce LanceNO | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 20% | |
| Chris OlaveNO | Receiving yards | 72.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Darnell WashingtonPITrole up | Receiving yards | 25.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| Devaughn VeleNOrole up | Receiving yards | 40.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receiving yards | 59.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Germie BernardPIT | Receiving yards | 56.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Receiving yards | 25.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Juwan JohnsonNOrole up | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Kendre MillerNO | Receiving yards | 3.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 60% | |
| Noah FantNOrole up | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 100% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Rico DowdlePITrole up | Receiving yards | 9.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 60% | |
| Alvin KamaraNO | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 100% | |
| Bryce LanceNO | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.99 | 47% | 0% | |
| Chris OlaveNO | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 30% | |
| Darnell WashingtonPITrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.91 | 49% | 20% | |
| Devaughn VeleNOrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.28 | 41% | 10% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 10% | |
| Germie BernardPIT | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.10 | 45% | 50% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.17 | 43% | 50% | |
| Juwan JohnsonNOrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 40% | |
| Kendre MillerNO | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.71 | 35% | 20% | |
| Noah FantNO | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.76 | 54% | 100% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.19 | 43% | 40% | |
| Rico DowdlePIT | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 70% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors PIT (64%) by 3.4 points.