This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NYJ. LV have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5. NYJ have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Brock Bowers · against NYJ

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

65%

Intermediate

26%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

36%

Middle

29%

Right side

35%

How NYJ defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

32nd

Intermediate

11th

Deep (20+)

20th

Left side

27th

Middle

16th

Right side

32nd

Yards after catch allowed

25th

Sack rate forced

19th

The read

1. the Jets rank 20th against deep balls, and 9% of Bowers's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
2. Work the left side: 36% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 7th percentile for separation and 51st for hands, and Brandon Stephens, Azareye'h Thomas and Jarvis Brownlee all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Garrett Wilson · against LV

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

67%

Intermediate

25%

Deep (20+)

8%

Left side

38%

Middle

20%

Right side

42%

How LV defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

28th

Intermediate

24th

Deep (20+)

5th

Left side

17th

Middle

24th

Right side

27th

Yards after catch allowed

20th

Sack rate forced

13th

The read

1. Las Vegas rank 28th against short throws, which make up 67% of Wilson's targets.
2. Work the right side: 42% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 74th percentile for separation and 33rd for hands, and Eric Stokes and Taron Johnson both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Kirk Cousins · against NYJ

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How NYJ defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

32nd

Intermediate

11th

Deep (20+)

20th

Left side

27th

Middle

16th

Right side

32nd

Yards after catch allowed

25th

Sack rate forced

19th

The read

1. the Jets rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws.
2. Pressure: the Jets are 19th at getting sacks, and Las Vegas are 28th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LV offence

NYJ defence

OverallEPA per play

17th

15th

PassingEPA per dropback

13th

23rd

RushingEPA per carry

31st

5th

Third downconversion rate

15th

12th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

4th

5th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Jets defence has a 26-place edge.

When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NYJ offence

LV defence

OverallEPA per play

15th

23rd

PassingEPA per dropback

15th

25th

RushingEPA per carry

21st

23rd

Third downconversion rate

22nd

23rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

29th

15th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders defence has a 14-place edge.

Form and history

Raiders this season

W27-13wk 1 vs MIAW26-14wk 2 at LACW35-27wk 3 at NOL27-30wk 4 vs KCL17-45wk 5 at NEL30-33wk 6 vs BUFL21-35wk 7 vs LA

Jets this season

W23-10wk 1 at TENL17-20wk 2 vs GBL24-31wk 3 at DETL12-23wk 4 at CHIW17-12wk 5 vs CLEL19-26wk 6 at NEL25-28wk 7 vs MIA

Last 1 meetingsLV 1 · NYJ 0

12-16NYJ at LV
2023-11

Injury report

Raidersmodel impact 0.0

Jack BechWR · Forearm	IR
Chris CollierRB	IR
Carter RunyonTE	IR
Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee	IR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle	IR
Brennan JacksonDE	IR
Justin PickettG	IR
Patrick JohnsonLB · Neck	Questionable

Jetsmodel impact 0.0

Arian SmithWR · Knee	IR
Tre BrownCB	IR
Tyler BaronDE · Knee	PUP
Braiden McGregorDE · Pectoral	IR
Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle	IR
Kiko MauigoaLB · Quadriceps	IR
Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh	IR
David OnyemataDT · Groin	IR
VJ PayneDB	IR
Anez CooperG · Shoulder	IR
Kene NwangwuRB · Knee	Questionable
Breece HallRB · Quadriceps	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.