CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BAL
BUF
CLE
PIT
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
CHI
SEA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to KC. KC have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. DEN have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (8th, 7th, 6th). There's no obvious soft spot for Kelce to lean on.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 40th percentile for separation and 23rd for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Patrick Surtain II and Kris Abrams-Draine all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How KC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Kansas City rank 23rd against deep balls, and 19% of Waddle's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (8th).
- Pressure: Denver are 6th at getting sacks, and Kansas City are 20th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)KC offenceDEN defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Chiefs offence has a 27-place edge.
When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DEN offenceKC defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Broncos offence has a 24-place edge.
Form and history
Chiefs this seasonBroncos this season
10-31DEN at KC2026-09
20-13DEN at KC2025-12
19-22KC at DEN2025-11
0-38KC at DEN2025-01
14-16DEN at KC2024-11
Injury report
Chiefsmodel impact 0.0| Jimmy HolidayWR | IR |
| Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee | IR |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Ankle | IR |
| Brashard SmithRB · Hamstring | IR |
| John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee | IR |
| Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Josh SimmonsOL · Back | IR |
| Rashee RiceWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Jaylon MooreOL · Concussion | Questionable |
| Joe ForsonWR | NA |
Broncosmodel impact 0.0| Pat BryantWR · Ankle | IR |
| Tyler BadieRB · Thumb | IR |
| Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body | IR |
| Jonah EllissDE · Ankle | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Levelle BaileyLB · Leg | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | PUP |
| Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Frank CrumOT | IR |
| Jaylen WaddleWR | Questionable |
| Pat Surtain IICB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Zach AllenDE · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors KC (59%) by 0.8 points.