SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
NE look like a strong play here.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 20th against intermediate throws, which make up 26% of Wilson's targets.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 77th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 31st against short throws, which make up 42% of Doubs's targets.
- Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 28th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 20th percentile for separation and 15th for hands, and Brandon Stephens, Jarvis Brownlee and Azareye'h Thomas all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (20th).
- Pressure: New England are 21st at getting sacks, and the Jets are 32nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYJ offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Patriots defence has a 14-place edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceNYJ defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Jets defence has a 16-place edge.
Form and history
Jets this season
Patriots this season42-10NE at NYJ2025-12
14-27NYJ at NE2025-11
22-25NYJ at NE2024-10
3-24NE at NYJ2024-09
17-3NYJ at NE2024-01
Injury report
Jetsmodel impact -2.1| Arian SmithWR · Knee | IR |
| Omar CooperWR · Ankle | IR |
| Tre BrownCB | IR |
| Tyler BaronDE · Knee | PUP |
| Braiden McGregorDE · Pectoral | IR |
| Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh | IR |
| David OnyemataDT · Groin | IR |
| VJ PayneDB | IR |
| Anez CooperG · Shoulder | IR |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Finger | Doubtful |
| Breece HallRB · Quadriceps | Doubtful |
Patriotsmodel impact 0.0| A.J. BrownWR · Ankle | IR |
| Mack HollinsWR · Calf | IR |
| Jeremiah WebbWR · Arm | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Reggie GilliamRB · Ankle | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
| Harold LandryLB | PUP |
| Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle | IR |
| Marcus BryantOL · Ankle | IR |
| Bryce BaringerP | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NE (82%) by 11.8 points.