ATL
GB
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
PHI
CHI
How the game swung
The Chiefs' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q3 12:53 - Kansas City explosive play by J.Ezeudu (+11% WPA) flipped the script.
(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 5-M.Delane at KC 49. 5-M.Delane to DEN 46 for 5 yards (14-C.Sutton).
(Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).
73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 1-X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at KC 29. 22-B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (77-J.Moore).
(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (20-N.Williams) [56-G.Karlaftis].
Every drive
Broncos drive left to right, Chiefs right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Turnover · 3 pl · -1 ydsTD · 10 pl · 56 ydsTD · 7 pl · 63 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 3 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 29 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 18 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 8 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 18 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 9 ydsTD · 10 pl · 80 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 5 ydsHalf · 2 pl · 7 ydsTD · 4 pl · 69 ydsPunt · 4 pl · 25 ydsTurnover · 1 pl · 0 ydsFG · 3 pl · 2 ydsFG · 6 pl · 58 ydsTurnover · 5 pl · 14 ydsTD · 4 pl · 32 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 5 ydsPunt · 8 pl · 41 ydsDowns · 6 pl · 18 ydsDowns · 4 pl · 14 ydsHalf · 0 pl · 0 ydsSide by side
Broncos leadersChiefs leadersScoring
| Q1 08:20 | | (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 0-6 |
| Q1 08:11 | | 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. | 0-7 |
| Q1 03:53 | | (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 1-E.Engram for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 6-7 |
| Q1 03:48 | | 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. | 7-7 |
| Q2 01:46 | | (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 7-13 |
| Q2 01:39 | | 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. | 7-14 |
| Q3 12:53 | | 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 7-20 |
| Q3 12:43 | | 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. | 7-21 |
| Q3 07:38 | | 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. | 10-21 |
| Q3 03:20 | | 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. | 10-24 |
| Q4 14:43 | | 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 10-30 |
| Q4 14:39 | | 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. | 10-31 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had DEN 54%, the market KC 55%. It finished DEN 10, KC 31.
Denver ranks #8 in turnovers (4.6%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.
Pick published 14 Sept, 10:08 UK, before kickoff.