ATL
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
How the game swung
The Jets' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q5 6:17 - Green Bay momentum-shifting play by J.Love (+30% WPA) flipped the script.
14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).
(Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).
(Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 15 for -9 yards (sack split by 90-L.Van Ness and 51-D.Dennis-Sutton).
44-J.Sherwood reported in as eligible. 14-A.McNamara punts 56 yards to GB 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore to GB 34 for 12 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 50-T.Reeder). NYJ-82-A.Smith was injured during the play.
(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
Every drive
Packers drive left to right, Jets right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Punt · 3 pl · 3 ydsPunt · 9 pl · 32 ydsPunt · 3 pl · -1 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 18 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 4 ydsPunt · 3 pl · -7 ydsTD · 9 pl · 74 ydsTD · 7 pl · 36 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 1 ydsHalf · 11 pl · 37 ydsPunt · 4 pl · 18 ydsPunt · 7 pl · 13 ydsTD · 10 pl · 64 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 7 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 43 ydsTurnover · 1 pl · 2 ydsFG · 3 pl · 9 ydsTD · 7 pl · 50 ydsPunt · 4 pl · 18 ydsFG · 3 pl · 3 ydsDowns · 5 pl · 20 ydsDowns · 4 pl · 0 ydsPunt · 3 pl · -3 ydsFG · 4 pl · 43 ydsSide by side
Packers leadersJets leadersScoring
| Q2 09:40 | | (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 6-0 |
| Q2 09:35 | | 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 7-0 |
| Q2 06:08 | | (No Huddle, Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 7-6 |
| Q2 06:04 | | 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. | 7-7 |
| Q3 02:35 | | (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-L.Van Ness]. PENALTY on NYJ-7-G.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards | 7-13 |
| Q3 02:30 | | 19-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. | 7-14 |
| Q4 11:08 | | 19-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. | 7-17 |
| Q4 08:02 | | (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 13-17 |
| Q4 07:58 | | 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 14-17 |
| Q4 03:03 | | 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 17-17 |
| Q5 05:26 | | 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 20-17 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had NYJ 63%, the market GB 62%. It finished GB 20, NYJ 17.
Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.
Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.