KC look like a strong play here. LAC have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5. KC have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 4.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Oronde Gadsden II · against KC

Best way in: deep balls

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

57%

Intermediate

30%

Deep (20+)

14%

Left side

28%

Middle

20%

Right side

51%

How KC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

14th

Intermediate

12th

Deep (20+)

19th

Left side

10th

Middle

15th

Right side

16th

Yards after catch allowed

27th

Sack rate forced

31st

The read

1. Kansas City rank 19th against deep balls, which make up 14% of Gadsden's targets.
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Gadsden's worst return (-0.11 EPA a target), and Kansas City are 14th there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 50th percentile for separation and 5th for hands, and Trent McDuffie allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Rashee Rice · against LAC

The opening is underneath, not deep

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

75%

Intermediate

15%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

38%

Middle

18%

Right side

44%

How LAC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

20th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

4th

Left side

9th

Middle

4th

Right side

12th

Yards after catch allowed

26th

Sack rate forced

9th

The read

1. the Chargers rank 20th against short throws and 26th for yards after the catch allowed. Rice takes 75% of his targets short and is 84th percentile after the catch.
2. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LAC offence

KC defence

OverallEPA per play

32nd

8th

PassingEPA per dropback

32nd

11th

RushingEPA per carry

27th

12th

Third downconversion rate

26th

11th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

31st

32nd

Biggest gap: overall, where the Chiefs defence has a 24-place edge.

When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

KC offence

LAC defence

OverallEPA per play

4th

6th

PassingEPA per dropback

7th

9th

RushingEPA per carry

1st

14th

Third downconversion rate

9th

5th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

6th

11th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Chiefs offence has a 13-place edge.

Form and history

Chargers this season

L14-26wk 1 vs ARIL14-26wk 2 vs LVL16-24wk 3 at BUFL23-30wk 4 at SEAL17-23wk 5 vs DEN

Chiefs this season

W31-10wk 1 vs DENW33-30wk 2 vs INDW24-10wk 3 at MIAW30-27wk 4 at LV

Last 5 meetingsLAC 2 · KC 3

16-13LAC at KC
2025-12

21-27KC at LAC
2025-09

17-19LAC at KC
2024-12

17-10KC at LAC
2024-09

13-12KC at LAC
2024-01

Injury report

Chargersmodel impact -1.8

Evan SvobodaTE	Out
Trey LanceQB · Groin	IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Hamstring	IR
David NjokuTE · Lower Leg	IR
Denzel PerrymanLB	IR
Tyler BiadaszC · Knee	IR
Trey PipkinsT · Knee	IR
Trevor PenningT · Concussion	IR
Isaiah WorldOT · Knee	PUP
Rashawn SlaterT · Ankle	IR
Tre' HarrisWR · Hamstring	Doubtful
Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps	Questionable

Chiefsmodel impact 0.0

Jimmy HolidayWR	IR
Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee	IR
Tyquan ThorntonWR · Ankle	IR
John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee	IR
Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL	IR
Cooper McDonaldLB · Knee	IR
Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL	PUP
Rashee RiceWR · Hamstring	Questionable
L'Jarius SneedCB · Knee	Questionable
Josh SimmonsOL · Back	Questionable
Joe ForsonWR	NA

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.