ATL
GB
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DET.
Key matchups
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYJ offenceDET defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Jets offence has a 14-place edge.
When the Lions have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DET offenceNYJ defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Jets defence has a 16-place edge.
Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
20-17DET at NYJ2022-12
Injury report
Jetsmodel impact 0.0| Tim PatrickWR · Groin | IR |
| Arian SmithWR · Knee | IR |
| Omar CooperWR · Ankle | IR |
| Tre BrownCB | IR |
| Tyler BaronDE · Knee | PUP |
| Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh | IR |
| David OnyemataDT · Groin | IR |
| VJ PayneDB | IR |
| Anez CooperG · Shoulder | IR |
| Mason TaylorTE · Thumb | Doubtful |
| Kene NwangwuRB · Back | Questionable |
Lionsmodel impact 0.0| Kendrick LawWR · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Back | IR |
| Avonte MaddoxCB · Foot | IR |
| Payton TurnerDE · Back | IR |
| Damone ClarkLB | IR |
| Cade MaysOL · Wrist | IR |
| Giovanni ManuOL · Knee | PUP |
| Brian BranchDB · Achilles | PUP |
| Kerby JosephDB · Knee | PUP |
| Christian MahoganyOL · Hip | Questionable |
| Blake MillerOT · Knee | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithNYJ | Passing yards | 216.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Jared GoffDET | Passing yards | 256.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Geno SmithNYJrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.50 | 38% | 30% | |
| Jared GoffDETrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.50 | 63% | 70% | |
| Breece HallNYJ | Rushing yards | 56.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDETrole up | Rushing yards | 84.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Adonai MitchellNYJ | Receiving yards | 44.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 10% | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDETrole up | Receiving yards | 76.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Breece HallNYJrole up | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | Receiving yards | 61.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDETrole up | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 60% | |
| Jameson WilliamsDETrole up | Receiving yards | 55.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Sam LaPortaDETrole up | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Adonai MitchellNYJ | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 10% | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | Receptions | 7.5 | 2.18 | 43% | 40% | |
| Breece HallNYJrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.22 | 42% | 40% | |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 40% | |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.91 | 49% | 40% | |
| Jameson WilliamsDET | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 70% | |
| Sam LaPortaDETrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DET (53%) by 1.3 points.