NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to KC. KC have been hot lately, winning 5 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Kelce's likeliest route is short throws (72% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 30th percentile for separation and 14th for hands, and Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How KC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Kansas City rank 18th against intermediate throws, which make up 36% of Smith-Njigba's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (13th).
- Pressure: Seattle are 12th at getting sacks, and Kansas City are 22nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)KC offenceSEA defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Seahawks defence has a 8-place edge.
When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SEA offenceKC defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Chiefs defence has a 23-place edge.
Form and history
Chiefs this season
Seahawks this season
10-24SEA at KC2022-12
Injury report
Chiefsmodel impact 0.0| Jimmy HolidayWR | IR |
| Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee | IR |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Ankle | IR |
| John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee | IR |
| Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Cooper McDonaldLB · Knee | IR |
| Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Rashee RiceWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Travis KelceTE · Ankle | Questionable |
| L'Jarius SneedCB · Knee | Questionable |
| Josh SimmonsOL · Back | Questionable |
| Jaylon MooreOL · Head | Questionable |
Seahawksmodel impact -0.7| Jacardia WrightRB · Foot | Out |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Shoulder | Out |
| Jake BoboWR · Knee | IR |
| Robbie OuztsRB | IR |
| Jadarian PriceRB · Chest | IR |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Anthony BradfordOL · Knee | IR |
| Mason RichmanOL · Knee | IR |
| Julian NealDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Bud ClarkDB · Ankle | IR |
| Drew LockQB · Elbow | Questionable |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Hip | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors KC (62%) by 1.6 points.