NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
We lean toward NYJ in this one. MIA have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5. NYJ have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 32nd against short throws, which make up 70% of Washington's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Washington's worst return (-0.62 EPA a target), and the Jets are 18th there.
- Work the right side: 42% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Miami rank 27th against short throws, which make up 65% of Wilson's targets.
- Work the middle: 21% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 30th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 72nd percentile for separation and 37th for hands, and Rasul Douglas and Julius Brents both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws.
- Pressure: the Jets are 20th at getting sacks, and Miami are 26th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIA offenceNYJ defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Jets defence has a 21-place edge.
When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYJ offenceMIA defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Jets offence has a 13-place edge.
Form and history
Dolphins this seasonJets this season34-10MIA at NYJ2025-12
21-27NYJ at MIA2025-09
20-32MIA at NYJ2025-01
26-32NYJ at MIA2024-12
0-30NYJ at MIA2023-12
Injury report
Dolphinsmodel impact -1.3| De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Cole TurnerTE | IR |
| Darrell Baker Jr.CB | PUP |
| Kyle LouisLB · Knee | IR |
| Trey MooreLB · Ankle | IR |
| Rene KongaDL | IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr.DB · Hamstring | IR |
| Caleb DouglasWR · Ankle | Questionable |
| Jaylen WrightRB · Foot | Questionable |
| Will KacmarekTE · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Reese TaylorCB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
| Rob Beal Jr.LB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Jetsmodel impact -0.4| Arian SmithWR · Knee | IR |
| Tre BrownCB | IR |
| Tyler BaronDE · Knee | PUP |
| Braiden McGregorDE · Pectoral | IR |
| Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh | IR |
| David OnyemataDT · Groin | IR |
| VJ PayneDB | IR |
| Anez CooperG · Shoulder | IR |
| Joseph OssaiDE · Ankle | Doubtful |
| Kiko MauigoaLB · Thigh | Doubtful |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Finger | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NYJ (56%) by 3.5 points.