This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to KC. KC have been the more consistent team recently, while MIA have struggled to find their form.

Key matchups

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

KC offence

MIA defence

OverallEPA per play

5th

29th

PassingEPA per dropback

11th

32nd

RushingEPA per carry

1st

14th

Third downconversion rate

8th

29th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

8th

32nd

Biggest gap: overall, where the Chiefs offence has a 24-place edge.

When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIA offence

KC defence

OverallEPA per play

27th

12th

PassingEPA per dropback

24th

4th

RushingEPA per carry

27th

29th

Third downconversion rate

21st

6th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

32nd

21st

Biggest gap: passing, where the Chiefs defence has a 20-place edge.

Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Chiefs this season

W31-10wk 1 vs DENW33-30wk 2 vs IND

Dolphins this season

L13-27wk 1 at LVL13-35wk 2 at SF

Last 2 meetingsKC 2 · MIA 0

7-26MIA at KC
2024-01

14-21MIA at KC
2023-11

Injury report

Chiefsmodel impact 0.0

Jimmy HolidayWR	IR
Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee	IR
John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee	IR
Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL	IR
Cooper McDonaldLB · Knee	IR
Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL	PUP
Josh SimmonsOL · Back	Questionable
Chamarri ConnerDB · Knee	Questionable
Joe ForsonWR	NA

Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0

Cole TurnerTE	IR
Darrell BakerCB	PUP
Storm DuckCB · Knee	PUP
Kyle LouisLB · Knee	IR
Trey MooreLB · Ankle	IR
Kenneth GrantDL · Leg	IR
Rene KongaDL	IR
Ronnie HarrisonDB · Hamstring	IR
Caleb DouglasWR · Ankle	Questionable
Jaylen WrightRB · Neck	Questionable
Chop RobinsonDE · Concussion	Questionable
Rob BealLB · Hamstring	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.