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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Chiefs
won by 14
Final · week 3
24–10
at Hard Rock Stadium · Sun 27 Sept
Dolphins
lost by 14

How the game swung

The Dolphins' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 12:57: KC score (6-0)Q1 12:54: KC score (7-0)Q1 03:33: MIA score (7-6)Q1 03:27: MIA score (7-7)Q2 13:02: KC score (13-7)Q2 12:58: KC score (14-7)Q3 10:13: MIA score (14-10)Q4 11:38: KC score (17-10)Q4 03:01: KC score (23-10)Q4 02:55: KC score (24-10)12345MIA winning ↑KC winning ↓
■ Dolphins ahead■ Chiefs ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 3:16 - Miami turnover by M.Willis (-13% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q1 14:55 · Other · nobody saw this coming
P.Mahomes EPA +3.4

15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to MIA 19 for 48 yards (11-D.Trader).

+12%win chance to KC
2
Q2 6:15 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
K.Walker EPA -3.6

64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to MIA 12 for no gain (20-J.Brooks; 90-M.Herring).

+11%win chance to MIA
3
Q2 3:16 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
M.Willis EPA -3.8

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Kansas City challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill, 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.S

+13%win chance to KC
4
Q2 2:00 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
P.Mahomes EPA -3.6

(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 4-R.Rice INTERCEPTED by 10-J.Rodriguez (11-D.Trader) at MIA 29. 10-J.Rodriguez to MIA 47 for 18 yards (1-X.Worthy).

+12%win chance to MIA
5
Q4 6:00 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
M.Willis EPA -2.7

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman (20-N.Williams).

+5%win chance to KC

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Rashee Rice won it

Rice won it: 88 yards on 9 targets, above his usual 73.

Profile
Targets9
Yards88
After the catch55
Yards on short throws61%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)7271%
Even

Even: Washington had 56 yards on 10 targets, close to his usual 23.

Profile
Targets10
Yards56
After the catch46
Yards on short throws80%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)2341%
Patrick Mahomes won it

Mahomes won it: +0.54 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.15.

Profile
epa db0.5384941702311102
dropbacks24
Expected (his usual)15%

Every drive

Chiefs drive left to right, Dolphins right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 4 pl · 67 yds
Q1
TD · 17 pl · 101 yds
Q1
TD · 10 pl · 60 yds
Q2
Downs · 6 pl · 17 yds
Q2
Downs · 6 pl · 39 yds
Q2
Turnover · 6 pl · 55 yds
Q2
Turnover · 3 pl · 24 yds
Q2
Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds
Q2
Half · 2 pl · 6 yds
Q3
FG · 8 pl · 61 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 12 yds
Q3
Punt · 10 pl · 38 yds
Q3
FG · 12 pl · 65 yds
Q4
Downs · 10 pl · 32 yds
Q4
TD · 5 pl · 57 yds
Q4
Turnover · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q4
Missed FG · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
Half · 2 pl · 8 yds
KC goal2040504020MIA goal

Side by side

334
Total yards
329
+0.14
EPA per play
-0.15
53%
Success rate
30%
16
First downs
17
0
Sacks taken
0
1
Turnovers
2
3/7
Third downs
8/16
Chiefs leaders
PassingP.Mahomes20/24 · 246 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
RushingK.Walker18 car · 70 yds
ReceivingR.Rice7/9 · 88 yds
Dolphins leaders
PassingM.Willis20/36 · 210 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
RushingM.Willis9 car · 56 yds
ReceivingC.Bell4/7 · 67 yds

Scoring

Q1 12:5777-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 12:547-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.7-0
Q1 03:3377-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-6
Q1 03:2747-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.7-7
Q2 13:0215-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-K.Walker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-7
Q2 12:587-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.14-7
Q3 10:1347-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.14-10
Q4 11:387-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.17-10
Q4 03:01(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-J.Uche].23-10
Q4 02:557-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.24-10

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had KC 69%, the market KC 82%. It finished KC 24, MIA 10.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.