TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
We lean toward NE in this one.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Bowers's likeliest route is intermediate throws (21% of his targets), where they rank 16th.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 9th percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LV defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Las Vegas rank 24th against intermediate throws, which make up 39% of Doubs's targets.
- Work the middle: 26% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 23rd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 16th percentile for separation and 30th for hands, and Eric Stokes and Darnay Holmes both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (16th).
- Pressure: New England are 22nd at getting sacks, and Las Vegas are 30th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LV offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders offence has a 16-place edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceLV defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Raiders defence has a 19-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Raiders this season
Patriots this season20-13LV at NE2025-09
17-21NE at LV2023-10
24-30NE at LV2022-12
Injury report
Raidersmodel impact 0.0| Corey RuckerWR | IR |
| Jack BechWR · Forearm | IR |
| Dont'e ThorntonWR | IR |
| Chris CollierRB | IR |
| Carter RunyonTE | IR |
| Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee | IR |
| Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle | IR |
| Brennan JacksonDE | IR |
| Justin PickettG | IR |
| Jalen NailorWR · Concussion | Questionable |
| Jackson Powers-JohnsonOL · Groin | Questionable |
| Trey ZuhnOT · Knee | Questionable |
Patriotsmodel impact 0.0| A.J. BrownWR · Ankle | IR |
| Jeremiah WebbWR · Arm | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
| Harold LandryLB | PUP |
| Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle | IR |
| Marcus BryantOL · Ankle | IR |
| Bryce BaringerP | IR |
| Greg Van RotenOG · Thigh | IR |
| Dell PettusDB · Ankle | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NE (57%) by 5.2 points.