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Patriots
lost by 3
Final · week 1
1013
at Lumen Field · Wed 9 Sept
Seahawks
won by 3

How the game swung

The Seahawks' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2 09:14: NE score (6-0)Q2 09:11: NE score (7-0)Q3 11:53: NE score (10-0)Q3 03:16: SEA score (10-3)Q4 11:38: SEA score (10-9)Q4 11:28: SEA score (10-10)Q4 05:53: SEA score (10-13)12345SEA winning ↑NE winning ↓
Seahawks aheadPatriots ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:26 - New England turnover by D.Maye (-42% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q4 14:27 · Turnover
D.Maye EPA -3.9

10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett (24-R.Thomas) at SEA 3. 28-N.Pritchett to SEA 33 for 30 yards (55-J.Wilson).

+5%win chance to SEA
2
Q4 11:38 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming
D.Lock EPA +6.1

2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+34%win chance to SEA
3
Q4 3:49 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
D.Maye EPA +2.0

(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas).

+10%win chance to NE
4
Q4 2:00 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
D.Maye EPA +2.4

(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).

+18%win chance to NE
5
Q4 0:26 · Turnover
D.Maye EPA -2.7

(:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

+42%win chance to SEA

Every drive

Patriots drive left to right, Seahawks right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 30 yds
Q1
Punt · 8 pl · 22 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 17 yds
Q2
TD · 10 pl · 43 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 34 yds
Q2
Punt · 8 pl · 45 yds
Q2
Half · 6 pl · 19 yds
Q3
FG · 7 pl · 24 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 14 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 36 yds
Q3
Turnover · 6 pl · 38 yds
Q4
TD · 5 pl · 67 yds
Q4
Turnover · 5 pl · 8 yds
Q4
FG · 7 pl · 49 yds
Q4
Turnover · 15 pl · 72 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
NE goal2040504020SEA goal

Side by side

277
Total yards
286
-0.11
EPA per play
+0.07
42%
Success rate
40%
17
First downs
13
3
Sacks taken
2
3
Turnovers
0
5/16
Third downs
2/11
Patriots leaders
PassingD.Maye23/33 · 178 yds · 1 TD · 3 INT
RushingR.Stevenson18 car · 51 yds
ReceivingM.Hollins4/5 · 51 yds
Seahawks leaders
PassingD.Lock16/22 · 187 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Price10 car · 52 yds
ReceivingJ.Smith-Njigba8/11 · 122 yds

Scoring

Q2 09:1470-G.Van Roten reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q2 09:118-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.7-0
Q3 11:538-A.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.10-0
Q3 03:165-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.10-3
Q4 11:382-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.10-9
Q4 11:285-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.10-10
Q4 05:535-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.10-13

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had SEA 54%, the market SEA 60%. It finished NE 10, SEA 13.

Pick published 9 Sept, 09:23 UK, before kickoff.