JAX look like the play here.

Key matchups

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NE offence

JAX defence

OverallEPA per play

25th

16th

PassingEPA per dropback

21st

15th

RushingEPA per carry

26th

17th

Third downconversion rate

26th

4th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

25th

9th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Jaguars defence has a 22-place edge.

When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

JAX offence

NE defence

OverallEPA per play

8th

5th

PassingEPA per dropback

7th

2nd

RushingEPA per carry

7th

16th

Third downconversion rate

9th

1st

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

11th

8th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Jaguars offence has a 9-place edge.

Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Patriots this season

L10-13wk 1 at SEAW20-3wk 2 vs PIT

Jaguars this season

W34-10wk 1 vs CLEL13-20wk 2 at DEN

Last 2 meetingsNE 1 · JAX 1

16-32NE at JAX
2024-10

10-50JAX at NE
2022-01

Injury report

Patriotsmodel impact 0.0

A.J. BrownWR · Ankle	IR
Jeremiah WebbWR · Arm	IR
Myles MontgomeryRB	IR
Julian HillTE · Knee	IR
Khalil JacobsLB	IR
Harold LandryLB	PUP
Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle	IR
Marcus BryantOL · Ankle	IR
Bryce BaringerP	IR
Brenden SchoolerDB	PUP
Eli RaridonTE · Thigh	Questionable
Carlton DavisCB · Neck	Questionable

Jaguarsmodel impact 0.0

Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body	IR
B.J. GreenDE · Elbow	IR
Parker HughesLB	IR
Jared BartlettLB · Leg	IR
Patrick MekariOL · Back	IR
Sam MustipherOL	IR
Garrett DiGiorgioG	IR
DaVon HamiltonDT · Back	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.