CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BAL
CLE
IND
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
PHI
WAS
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NE. MIA have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Miami rank 32nd against intermediate throws, which make up 27% of Brown's targets.
- Work the right side: 37% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 28th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 9th percentile for separation and 72nd for hands, and Rasul Douglas and Julius Brents both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 19th against intermediate throws, which make up 14% of Washington's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Washington's worst return (-0.62 EPA a target), and New England are 7th there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How MIA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Miami rank 28th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Miami are 21st at getting sacks, and New England are 17th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceMIA defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Patriots offence has a 27-place edge.
When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIA offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Patriots defence has a 15-place edge.
Form and history
Patriots this season
10-13wk 1 at SEAW
20-3wk 2 vs PITL
6-35wk 3 at JAXW
29-26wk 4 at BUFW
45-17wk 5 vs LVW
26-19wk 6 vs NYJL
24-30wk 7 at CHIDolphins this season
10-38MIA at NE2026-01
33-27NE at MIA2025-09
15-34NE at MIA2024-11
15-10MIA at NE2024-10
17-31NE at MIA2023-10
Injury report
Patriotsmodel impact 0.8| Mack HollinsWR · Calf | IR |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Shoulder | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Reggie GilliamRB · Ankle | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
| Harold Landry IIILB | PUP |
| Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle | IR |
| Alijah Vera-TuckerOL · Hamstring | IR |
| Marcus BryantOL · Ankle | IR |
| Greg Van RotenOG · Thigh | IR |
Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0| De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Cole TurnerTE | IR |
| Darrell Baker Jr.CB | PUP |
| Trey MooreLB · Ankle | IR |
| Rene KongaDL | IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr.DB · Hamstring | IR |
| Jaylen WrightRB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
| Reese TaylorCB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
| Willie Gay Jr.LB · Illness | Questionable |
| Rob Beal Jr.LB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NE (72%) by 5.4 points.